Japanese Grand Prix Review

Everything seemed to be going according to plan for Maranello. The rain cleared away after Friday, allowing the Bridgestone dries to excel on their home track. The Ferraris locked out the front row of the grid, and had the bonus of the Bridgestone-shod Toyotas, in a major performance turnaround, filling the second. Both Ferraris got away cleanly, Felipe Massa led away from pole, and duly ceded the lead to Schumacher in the early stages, with Ralf Schumacher - who better? - providing a further buffer back to Alonso.

Then the best laid plans started to unravel. Massa pitted three laps earlier than planned due to a slow puncture, and got held up by Nick Heidfeld's slower BMW upon returning on track. Toyota's tactics put them out of the picture, leaving Alonso to pick off Ralf at the first stop. Fernando was up to second, but despite Michael not being able to dominantly romp away from the Renault, whether by choice or because the R26 and the 248 F1 really were closely matched, he could do nothing about the German. Schumi pitted later than Alonso at both stops, and the comfortable win should have been his.

That was until, moments later, one of those events that renews your faith in the fact that, however predictable a season of F1 may have become, there is always just enough teasing unpredictability to make you realise that you just never know. Michael's engine failure was, amazingly, his first in a race since France 2000, well over 100 races ago, and Ferrari's first in a race since Malaysia 2002. For taking exactly this moment in F1 history to detonate, Schumacher's Ferrari engine takes out our 'Reject of the Race' Award.

The championship is not totally over yet. Fernando simply needs one point; Michael needs to win with Alonso failing to finish. How likely is that to happen? OK, so it happened at Monza a month ago, but is lightning going to strike twice? Schumi has already conceded the drivers' championship, but despite Ferrari's undoubted resurgence in the second half of the year, given one-sided occurrences such as the mass damper affair and Alonso's Monza qualifying penalty, you feel that some justice has been served.

Ironically, since it was Michael's first engine failure since 2000, this year's championship battle has overtones of that very season. That year, Schumi cantered to an early points lead, only for a series of unexpected DNFs and a McLaren revival to bring Mika Hakkinen back into contention, and even briefly into the points lead. Ferrari regrouped late in the year, and an engine failure for the Finn at Indianapolis all but handed the title to Schumacher in a head-to-head stoush at Suzuka.

As they say, there is nothing new under the sun. Should the miraculous not eventuate at Interlagos, and Alonso clinch his second consecutive title as he should, then it will continue the trend of championship chasers falling short. Nigel Mansell couldn't do it in 1991, Damon Hill couldn't do it in 1994, Schumi himself couldn't do it in 1997 or 1998 respectively, Kimi Raikkonen and Juan-Pablo Montoya couldn't do it in 2003, and Raikkonen's chase of Alonso last year never really got going.

It would also continue the recurring truth in F1 that fairytale endings for retiring drivers rarely happen. Hill's last season in 1999 was more nightmare than fairytale. Alain Prost's last Grand Prix ended in defeat to long-time bitter nemesis Ayrton Senna. Mansell's last race in 1992, at the end of a dominant championship campaign, and his final race (at the time) before he left for CART, ended whilst he was in the lead when he was clouted from behind by Senna.

Keke Rosberg and Niki Lauda were both leading their final Grands Prix, in Adelaide in 1986 and 1985 respectively, when both retired through mechanical failures. And as far back as 1973, although Sir Jackie Stewart won the title that year, he withdrew from his swansong race after the tragic death of team-mate Francois Cevert in practice at Watkins Glen. In short, all this history may turn to bunkum should the unlikely occur in Brazil, but not only the points table, but also F1 tradition, is not on Michael's side.

REJECT OF THE RACE
Schumacher's Ferrari Engine
The worst possible moment to rediscover unreliability

All's well that ends well, but Fernando had not arrived happily in Japan, having been surprisingly frank in saying that he had felt deserted by his team in Shanghai when, in his miserable second stint, Giancarlo Fisichella was allowed to pass. Apart from the fact that Renault's tactics had probably been right, and that Renault's support of Alonso appears to have been unstinting, it proved the tension that we had long predicted, should the title fight be close and given Alonso's impending move to McLaren.

And why wouldn't Renault be dutifully supporting Alonso? His performance once again relegated team-mate Fisi into also-ran status, as neither number 2 provided much help. Massa's puncture did cost him, but he seemed quite powerless to offer any fightback in the second half of the race. Giancarlo once again found himself completely outshone, although given the circumstances of the death of his childhood best friend just before the start of the weekend, a podium finish was a nice result for him.

Jenson Button came in 4th on Honda's last home race on their genuine home track before the Japanese GP moves to Toyota-owned Fuji next year, but it was yet another fairly anonymous race to his third 4th place in four races. It's where Honda seems to be - just off podium pace, regardless of which teams are making the running at any given weekend. Rubens Barrichello's race was destroyed by yet another poor start, a second clash with Heidfeld in as many races, and a nose change after the first lap.

Although last year's Japanese GP was a classic, especially with Alonso and Raikkonen burning from the stern, Suzuka's sweepers do make it a most testing driver's circuit but not an easy one to pass on. That was exacerbated this year, as Rubens then found, with the less-powerful V8 engines plus the enormous downforce being generated turning the much-vaunted 130R into a limp challenge, and with the chicane being brought slightly forward and made less tight, making it also less of a heavy-braking and passing zone.

It was a nothing race for Pedro de la Rosa, who never looked like getting into the top 10 in either qualifying or race, although that was apparently due to the fact that he was running a 2007-spec engine - in which case, it's not immediately boding well for their 2007 campaign either. The Spaniard, despite being only workmanlike without shining too much (except in Hungary), has been retained for Brazil, with McLaren being especially cautious not to throw Lewis Hamilton into the fire too soon.

6th and 7th was below Toyota's ambitions, and the team have publicly stated their annoyance at Jarno Trulli for not letting Ralf past in the final stint despite three radio requests, saying that it cost Ralf a 4th place finish. Except that, if Ralf was so fast, how come Trulli leapfrogged him at the first stop despite Ralf pitting later? And how come Toyota naively pitted both cars so comparatively early in the pit stop sequences? Ralf was going to get by Button and Raikkonen on the track in the last stint? Preposterous.

In a weekend that was more Noah's Ark than most this year, the BMWs of Heidfeld and Robert Kubica came in 8th and 9th, Heidfeld ahead although once again pushed to the limit by the highly impressive Pole. Yet another good result for the Munich team, although Toyota's double-score put them only one point behind in the battle for 5th in the constructors' title. In terms of consistency, though, in terms of being regularly able to fight for points, and in terms of impressiveness, BMW deserve 5th place hands down.

As could be expected given their comparatively limited budget these days, Williams have lost any semblance of their race-leading competitiveness earlier in the season, and are now consigned to midfield strugglers. Nico Rosberg had arguably one of his best weekends of the season, qualifying in the top 10 on his first visit to this daunting track, outpacing Mark Webber and running ahead of the Australian all race, creditably managing to finish where he started.

If Webber is already looking towards '07, then he is merely following the lead of his future employers, as Red Bull continue their complete indifference towards the remainder of this season. That was shown by both cars failing to make the second segment of qualifying, the only team other than Super Aguri to suffer that fate. David Coulthard has grumbled about Red Bull's lack of development this year, but neither he nor Robert Doornbos showed signs of extending themselves in the cockpit either.

Vitantonio Liuzzi and Scott Speed in the Toro Rossos maintained their season-long trends, starting well but dropping back as the race progressed, and having a spin each. They ran ahead of the Red Bulls in the early stages of the race, but as could be expected, fell behind them as the race progressed. Maintaining good race pace, and eliminating silly mid-race errors remain the big challenges for Liuzzi and Speed. Speed would have been beaten by Takuma Sato's Super Aguri had he not retired late in the race.

Sato once again affirmed that there are few drivers who thrive at Suzuka quite like he does. This year's effort was not as noticeable as the points-scoring, headling-grabbing acts in 2002 and 2003, but it was almost as commendable. He out-qualified Tiago Monteiro's Spyker MF1 and stayed ahead of the Portuguese driver throughout the race, and should have beaten Speed home as well. In a race of low attrition, 15th place ahead of a Toro Rosso and a Spyker MF1, and only one lap behind, was a terrific result.

Christijan Albers shone once again in a season where he has been something of a quiet achiever, making the second segment of qualifying, but then suffering his horrendous suspension failure in the race that tore off his rear right wheel and the rear wing in the braking zone for the chicane. It does not bear thinking what the outcome could have been if the failure had occurred, not at this comparative slow spot with plenty of run-off, but a few hundred metres up the road on the approach to 130R.

Albers completely out-classed team-mate Monteiro once again, as already noted above Tiago having been out-qualified and outraced by Sato's Super Aguri. Despite disappointing throughout this year, it looks like Monteiro may find the sponsorship dollars to stay with his team for one more year. That would be something of a shame, considering the wealth of young talent knocking at the door, Germany's Adrian Sutil, who drove the third Spyker at Suzuka, being an obvious candidate.