Then there are the more human factors. Fernando Alonso seems to have that knack of giving 110%, extracting more than the maximum from the car, and motivating the team as a result. Along with the World Champion has come a host of new sponsors, most notably Vodafone, taken away from Ferrari no less. The car may look similar in design and livery and not as fresh as Ron Dennis promised, but there's every reason why McLaren would be going into 2007 in buoyant and confident mood.

We know what Alonso can do. A hat-trick of titles would not surprise, but as the first to do it including a change of teams since Juan Manuel Fangio, it would be a sensational achievement. In a way, Alonso's brilliance takes the pressure off Lewis Hamilton. No one expects him to beat his team-mate; if he matches Fernando or is just a two or three tenths off, his mission will be accomplished. As the rookie in the best position since Montoya in 2001, if luck falls his way his first victory may even come this year.

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The question is whether there is anyone who can eke out that little bit extra from the car, and make the difference by delivering on demand. For all the talk, there is not one scintilla of evidence to suggest that Giancarlo Fisichella will lift his game and start driving the team forward, although we will be "very 'appy" to be proven wrong. However, more fighting words but underwhelming performances will not help to prolong his career, now into its 12th season, and with Nelson Piquet Jnr waiting in the wings as a test driver.

And just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, so one Race of Champions victory over Schumacher and Loeb doesn't make a top F1 driver. Heikki Kovalainen was unable to beat Nico Rosberg in GP2, and with just one Nissan World Series title behind him, he does not have a Next Big Thing aura about him. His recent smash in Bahrain won't have helped his confidence either. A few more wins for Renault wouldn't surprise, but neither would a victory drought, and a championship win would frankly come as a shock.

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Still, Maranello's testing form has been solid, whether at Barcelona, Jerez or Sakhir. The intriguing thing is, after years of running a one-car team, how will they cope with a genuine intra-team battle? The pairing of Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen will be one of the most fascinating to watch through the season. Massa has continuity on his side, two strong wins last year to boost his confidence, the bulk of the off-season testing, and clearly he has won the hearts of the team. He may well be a genuine contender.

Raikkonen however almost seems to have been disfavoured by the team in testing, he's been slower than Massa, and his coldness/party animal Jekyll and Hyde complex might not endear him to the familial atmosphere of Ferrari. Or maybe he's just waiting for Melbourne, when it really matters, to pull out the big laps and assert himself over Felipe. Ferrari are title favourites by a small margin, especially if their reliability holds - but it was the Japanese-spec engine that blew up at Suzuka costing Schumi the title...

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For all that, nothing breeds publicity like success, but Honda's testing pace suggests that they will, once again, be holding a watching brief just off the leading few cars. In other words, they will regularly be in the hunt for points and even podiums, but it will take a stroke of luck to bring victory. Heck, Nick Fry is predicting they won't win in Australia! That must be a disappointment, for that's where they were last year. It's rare that a non-winning package at year's start gets transformed into a winning one as time passes.

Jenson Button's 2006 was decent enough; in fact, after his Hungary win he was excellent. More of the same will see him maximise Honda's potential, whatever that may be, and possibly notch up another win. But as for Rubens Barrichello, some were impressed by him last year, but we were not. His one lap speed in the Honda is fine, but he needs to find a pace over longer runs that will ensure he doesn't fall back through the pack. If he can do that, the Honda pair could be as evenly matched as they ought to be on paper.

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The potential appears to be there for podiums and even wins, but the question is, can the team bring all its elements together to reach that potential? Gearbox gremlins have the team worried about reliability, for instance. It's one thing to make a car quick, it's another to make it last as well. Does Nick Heidfeld have the killer instinct to win races? You just can't imagine him putting in a sequence of banzai laps in the middle of a race, or pulling off several passing manoeuvres when there's a victory at stake.

Kubica showed that he can be composed under pressure when he took that podium at Monza in only his third Grand Prix, but when a win is for the taking the pressure rises exponentially. He is still, after all, quite inexperienced in motor racing terms, let alone F1 terms. And how much will BMW's bizarre plan to run Sebastian Vettel on Fridays, at the expense of track time for their race drivers, dent Heidfeld and Kubica's confidence? Improvement on 5th in the constructors' title is likely, but regular wins are still a way off.

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The team are pledging their first win this year, but they said that last year as well. But where is it going to come from? Jarno Trulli no longer inspires, even in qualifying trim, and Ralf Schumacher is doing nothing to shake off his reputation for being inconsistent and overpaid, and over recent years he's also developed a penchant for getting injured. With Franck Montagny and a few young Japanese drivers as test and development pilots, Toyota seem to have well and truly missed the talent boat.

That applies to the technical and backroom staff as well, who are now as faceless as the drivers. The rule-by-committee method lacks direction and leadership. It takes more than just money and working harder to succeed in Formula One, you need the right people in the right places, and Toyota plainly do not have that. As Ferrari, McLaren and BMW up their game, and with Renault still competitive and Honda hungry for wins, even podiums for Toyota look remote, let alone that breakthrough victory.

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They may just be sandbagging, but normally if a team's hiding their true pace, they're being deceptively quick, not the other way around. They say that you can't make a slow, reliable car quick - so how do you make a tardy, unreliable machine both quick and reliable? Both Mark Webber and David Coulthard are straight-shooters, so for both to admit that there is a lot of work to do and that expectations for the start of the season are low is a poor indictment. Even the best like Newey miss the target sometimes.

All this comes as very bad news for the team's two drivers. DC is the oldest man in F1 now, and a second nondescript year in a row could spell the end of his career. But it could also mean doom for Webber. He simply can't afford two team switches in a row which, although they were meant to take him forwards, end up taking him sideways or even further back. He'll become an overlooked journeyman as teams search for fresh talent. But, in all honesty, minor points right now would seem to be the maximum goal.

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No one is saying much about Williams' chances, and for sure regular podiums are probably out of the question, but Sir Frank and his men ought not be underestimated. Their budget is not high, but the Toyota engine will be reliable if not the most powerful, they have found decent new sponsorship, they have Bridgestone experience, their aero package is aggressive to overcome their downforce deficiencies of previous years, and at a guess they are probably around a second or slightly less off front-running pace.

In a condensed midfield they may have the measure of the Red Bull teams, Super Aguri and Spyker, and they have every chance of embarrassing the Toyota works team whilst nibbling at the likes of Renault and Honda. One big question mark, though, will be the driving line-up. Nico Rosberg needs to reignite the spark that we saw in the first quarter of 2006, and while Alexander Wurz will be dependable and fast, he hasn't raced regularly for over six years and he simply won't be able to relearn his racecraft overnight.

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In the meantime, they can get to work refining Newey's problematic design, but in testing they haven't looked too bad, suggesting that the chassis may suit the Ferrari engine more than the Renault. Vitantonio Liuzzi may surprise this season. Team co-owner Gerhard Berger, also a no-bull (sorry, "no-toro") character, said that at the end of last season the team sat down with its drivers to analyse their strengths and weaknesses, to hopefully iron out the driver errors that had blighted their year.

Apparently, Tonio responded very positively, and if he works harder and keeps the STR-2 on the road more often, he could upstage his Red Bull stablemates. On the other hand, Scott Speed did not react as well, was late in being confirmed for 2007 as a punishment, and starts the season on the back foot, although he tested strongly on the last day at Sakhir. Liuzzi on talent should have the edge, although, as with the main Red Bull team, points this season may not be too readily forthcoming.

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But as for Spyker's fortunes on the track? They have the smallest budget on the grid (hence 4 paying test drivers), the F8-VII is clearly conservative, Gascoyne came too late and can only refine the car, the Ferrari engines help but in testing they have been a bit off the pace. It is conceivable that they will be only two seconds off the best but still be propping up the rest of the field. Whether or not they can score points will depend on their ability to create opportunities, through strategy and set-up, and to maximise them.

Christijan Albers impressed mildly in 2006, but he was flattered by Tiago Monteiro having a poor year. He may have his work cut out keeping new team-mate Adrian Sutil at bay, though. The young German starred in his Friday outings for Midland, and appears to have a good turn of raw speed, even if he also seems to have something of a wild streak. This could be an interesting internal battle as the season progresses, although if they score more than a handful of points it will come as a surprise.

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Their bid to use the 2006 Honda could land them in legal hot water come Melbourne. They have already had a fight with Spyker over Giedo van der Garde as test driver. The car has failed the FIA's more stringent crash tests, and their launch has been pushed back and then back further, partly because they haven't sorted out their main sponsor and hence their final colour scheme. Compared to last season, when things were tight but at least the team seemed to be in control, this year a mild panic pervades.

The RA106 was a consistent points scorer last year, but development moves quickly and will probably be relegated to fighting for occasional minor points. Takuma Sato revived his career last year, relishing his team leader role amongst so-so team-mates. He faces an altogether different proposition though in Anthony Davidson. The Brit will be desperate to prove himself as a racer in a car he knows well from last year. He is a good chance to get the upper hand and start beating Taku more often than not.

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Williams look like sneaking in to collect consistent points, but Toyota might flounder in the midfield cauldron. Of the rest, Super Aguri might have the edge thanks to their ex-Honda machinery, leaving Red Bull and Toro Rosso to work up from their current low baseline, and Spyker to bring up the rear despite having a respectable car. The fact is, with the regulations remaining stable, the field is going to bunch up, mistakes are going to be costly, and it could all make for some exciting pressure motor-racing.

REJECTS IN 2007:

Customer cars, and rows over customer cars.

Giedo van der Garde - not worth a fight between Spyker and Super Aguri.

BMW's tactic to run Sebastian Vettel on Fridays.

Renault's baby-vomit colour scheme.

Aero devices and airflow conditioners, all weird and wonderful.

Fuji as a replacement for Suzuka.

Adrian Newey's Red Bull RB3 - a miss to balance out the hits.

Mark Webber's career prospects.

Giancarlo Fisichella's championship challenge.

Spyker's four testers - and they claim it's not for the money!

Toyota, Toyota, Toyota.