How Lewis Hamilton reacts to all this could be one of the interesting stories of the season. He's spent the last four years (including F3 and GP2) in winning machinery, and achieved a world title; could he cope with a car that scores points but not wins? Supposedly as a wheel-to-wheel racer sans pareil, midfield battles and the new regulations should suit him, but bear in mind that most of this too-many errors last year were in the white heat of hand-to-hand combat...

We're not discounting him just yet but right now he's no title favourite. And where does that leave Heikki Kovalainen? He was too anonymous last season; a so-so car will either make that worse or allow him to shine like with Renault in 2007. The question is, is his default mode average or brilliant? We'll find out this year. One thing for sure, though, is that if McLaren are to claw their way back from this sluggish start, the fact that Ron Dennis has moved aside - sort of - for Martin Whitmarsh won't make any difference.

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The fact that they are playing it safe is reflecting of the reality that Stefano Domenicali and his men aren't recognised design geniuses and this is their biggest test yet. In testing, the car has looked competitive enough for regular podiums and even wins, but there is nothing to suggest that they will definitely be world-beaters. Their KERS system appears to be a work in progress, and reliability, which has been slipping in recent years could prove an even bigger headache in 2009.

The timing of the regulation changes is bad news for Felipe Massa. He showed last year that he can develop over time a race and title-winning technique, but his latent adaptability remains a question-mark. We wouldn't bet the house on him just yet. As for Kimi Raikkonen, his star waned badly in 2008 when he showed his raw pace was at the mercy of car and tyre characteristics. 2009 will be a test for his reputation, legacy and motivation - how many more seasons does The Iceman have in him?

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The design of the F1.09 really does not look that sophisticated, but that does not mean that it won't be effective. This is a team which is likely to be in the hunt for regular podiums and wins. But one aspect which is worth keeping an eye on is how BMW respond to the global economic crisis. The team have lost and not replaced their Intel and Credit Suisse sponsorship. Could funding be an issue throughout the year, that affects ongoing development of the car?

No doubt Robert Kubica had a sensational year in 2008, but that was on the back of an average 2007, and this will be the year for him to consolidate and for us to decide if he is a pretender or permanent contender. He's had a very quiet testing season which isn't determinative but it's not entirely confidence-inducing either. Nick Heidfeld, on the other hand, is fired up and topped several tests. He's in the last chance saloon after being blown away last season, yet that might be enough to stir him to unprecedented heights.

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Which is exactly where Renault started out in 2007, and in 2008. They have established a worrying trend of beginning the season slightly off the pace, only to make improvements as the year goes on. Except that they can't really afford to do that in 2009, with no in-season testing. Renault will be there or thereabouts in the points, but wins are another matter. They may need wins though to attract sponsorship for 2010, with ING's withdrawal already having been announced.

The only certainty is that if the car has a sniff of a good result, Alonso will deliver it. That was the case in the second half of last season, but can Fernando maintain the motivation if the car starts off in the lower points again? Does he have a Ferrari contract lined up for next season? Meanwhile, Nelson Piquet Jr must consider himself very lucky to have kept his spot. If he cannot stay on the track more often and score a decent bag of points, his F1 future could be in doubt.

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In the wake of Honda's withdrawal, it has been revealed that Toyota head office was tempted to do likewise, and now the team may no longer be funded by bottomless pockets. Which may in fact turn out to be a blessing in disguise, as it could actually spur the team to start achieving. That and the fact that the new rules have meant that evolving the car's mediocre predecessors was not an option. Don't discount the end result being a breakthrough win in their eighth season in F1.

And they have the drivers who could deliver. After a rather wild start to his return to F1 last year, despite the flak he copped for the last lap in Brazil, Timo Glock was one of the most impressive drivers in the second half of 2008, his pace over long runs demonstrating both speed and delicacy. Into his 13th season in F1, Jarno Trulli still has qualifying speed to burn, and his race pace is underestimated despite his time-honoured reputation as a poor racer. We wouldn't count against him adding to his Monaco 2004 triumph.

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The team has spent most of winter testing lapping around in the '08 car with '09 parts. Leaving aside Brawn GP, which despite its late arrival has actually been in the works for ages, the STR4 was the last '09 car to make its curtain call, even later than Red Bull. The Adrian Newey-designed chassis is radical and refined, but whatever its foibles, RBR and STR will share them equally. It's just that, in terms of the other variables, there's little that looks likely to give Toro Rosso an edge again.

Sebastien Bourdais probably on balance deserved a second chance, but he was retained for continuity more than speed. Having said that, released from the shadow of Vettel, and with this year's cars moving closer to the Champ Cars in which he was so dominant, he is likely to do better than last season. Sebastien Buemi, however, seems to have been chosen for his first name and for being part of the Red Bull program, more than for his recent CV. The only rookie in the '09 field, we don't expect him to set the track alight.

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But let's not get carried away here. The late arrival of the RB5 has meant that testing has been somewhat limited, and perhaps the team have not had enough time to extract the full potential from the car. Testing form has suggested that they are in the mix, but so are many others like Ferrari, Toyota, BMW, Renault and even Williams. And what recent years have shown is that Newey can also get too radical, too complicated, with ramifications for reliability. Those worries haven't been assuaged yet for the RB5.

What Red Bull do have, though, is the most closely-matched line-up in the cockpit. Sebastian Vettel is a megastar in the making - last year showed that. He's young enough and phlegmatic enough not to have the psychological hang-ups that burden others, so his talent does the talking. Mark Webber, though, will relish the challenge, and don't think his off-season leg-break and Fuji '07 isn't spurring him on. Very little splits these two, although the odds may favour Vettel. Just.

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Look at the situation now, however, and computers and boffins make more difference than engineering gut feel. Everyone's engines are on par, everyone has the same gizmos (or lack thereof), everyone's on the same times. And Williams no longer have a Newey, nor the budget; RBS is on the way out and Lenovo's gone already. So Williams have done the best they can in the circumstances, and with their flywheel KERS and radical diffuser, have come up with what looks like a neat and competitive package.

Except that a points-and-podiums car merely puts them on level pegging with about five other teams. And their drivers won't necessarily make the difference. Kazuki Nakajima is a good fighter but no speed demon; Nico Rosberg definitely has the pace and talent, but last season he could not deliver regularly enough and could be falling into the same rut that the entire team is in. William lost their X-factor a while ago, and, however decent their new car is, they're just not going to get it back.

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But with its high nose and angular shapes, the VJM02 has overtones of the 1996 Forti Corse, and generally looks unsophisticated. It has been 1.5 to 2 seconds off the pace in testing over long runs, which is roughly where the team was last year. In days past that gap meant the midfield; now it means bringing up the rear. In the end, someone's got to be last. Mike Gascoyne may or may not have been a prickly character to work with, but with the rule changes this may have been the wrong time to part company with him.

The driving line-up hardly inspires confidence. Adrian Sutil can be quick, especially in the rain, but overall remains too erratic and he's already off other team managers' radars. He'll need to earn newfound respectability by scoring up to 10 points this year. And what is Giancarlo Fisichella still hanging around for? He's turning into a latter-day Michele Alboreto, wallowing in the ranks of minnow teams in the twilight of his career. His experience didn't exactly pay off last season; how is this year going to be any different?

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Actually, it shouldn't be that much of a surprise. The car has been in gestation for over a year, modified only to fit the Mercedes engine, and has been overseen by Ross Brawn's technical mastery. The packaging is gloriously neat, with a low droop nose, McLaren-style side-pods, and a double-decker diffuser. The team are not running KERS, by choice or otherwise, but it may just be that focussing on the fundamentals pays greater dividends than investing in expensive, unproven technology.

Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello can still deliver, and the potential of the Brawn might just revitalise them enough so that we will see an encore of the Barrichello of 1994, 1999 and 2002, or the Button of 2004 and 2006. On current form, they look good for podiums and wins, without getting too far ahead of ourselves. After all his Ferrari successes, this could be Brawn's greatest triumph; thank goodness the BGP001 won't be the best car never to have raced. How must Honda head office be feeling right now?

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BMW, Toyota and Ferrari form a pack that's also chasing for podiums and wins, with Renault and Williams, maybe Red Bull, showing that they are also in contention for regular points, the odd podium, and maybe even more than that on a good day. It doesn't take a genius though to notice that that's seven teams fighting over eight points-paying places. And McLaren will join them for sure, although initially they seem to be stuck battling with the likes of Toro Rosso and Force India towards the back.

REJECTS IN 2009:

The 'race wins decides the championship' system - if it survives. What rubbish.

KERS: complex, incomprehensible, invisible ... and pointless?

The developing tussle between the FIA, FOM and FOTA.

Abu Dhabi as a soulless season-ender.

McLaren's championship hopes.

The design of the Renault R29.

Engine cover fins - other aero monstrosities have been banned, why not this as well?

Nelson Piquet Jr.

Sebastien Buemi.

Red Bull's protestations about taking their first win.

Force India's protestations about scoring points.

Those who were writing off Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello - including us!