Turkish Grand Prix Review

There was a disturbingly similar pattern to the previous races. There or thereabouts in free practice, Q1 and Q2, he pulled out a mighty lap in Q3 when team-mate Rubens Barrichello and Mark Webber looked like taking pole, and although he did get pipped by Sebastian Vettel, the published fuel loads told the story - yet again, Button was one of the heaviest on the front few rows. Once Vettel, who already had his work cut out, handed the lead to the Brawn on lap one by his own mistake, it was all but game over.

In the first stint, when Vettel should have been up front making a gap so his three-stop strategy could work, instead it was Button putting in green and purple sector times. And that kind of relentlessness has been the story of his season so far. Just when others threaten, Jenson and his Brawn keep pulling out something that says, "Take that!". He kept it up for the rest of the race too, despite a brief challenge from Vettel in the second stint, and he could afford to turn down the wick in the closing laps.

As Webber said afterwards, Button was on another planet, and he has been for much of the season to date. Increasingly pundits have called the championship race over with ten races still to run. But, whether you like the Englishman or not, his domination this year has been accompanied by the good grace and humility missing in the demeanour of the likes of Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton, and as a result fans worldwide are not growing sick of his steamroller. Yet. Silverstone promises to be one mega party.

There was no party on the other side of the Brawn garage though. When Schumi was winning six out of the first seven races in 2004 (before going on to win 12 out of the first 13!), the man who couldn't keep up in the same car is the same Barrichello who can't keep up with at the moment. Behind Jenson on the grid but on the cleaner side of the track, it came to naught when, like in Australia, he fluffed his start and the anti-stall kicked in, dropping him to 12th behind Heikki Kovalainen.

This is not about bad luck, in the same way that people talk about Webber's oft-abysmal fortunes. It is as much about bad psychology as anything else. The truth is that Rubens, on his day, can beat anyone. But perhaps he doesn't have that ability that champions do, to pull something special out on demand. And so, as he tried in vain to match and beat Schumi, and as he tries to match and beat Jenson, he over-extends himself, makes errors, and grows overly sensitive to anything that might be going ever so slightly wrong.

And, race by race, it just makes that chip on his shoulder bigger and bigger. Barrichello would do well to take a leaf out of Gerhard Berger's book. When the Austrian went to McLaren in 1990, he quickly discovered that, contrary to what he believed, he simply couldn't compete with and was not on the same level as Ayrton Senna. So he accepted that in his mind, did the best he could, and approached his racing with the good humour that is currently deserting Rubens at a rapid rate.

The psychology at Red Bull is now also getting interesting. Since China, this was the fourth race in a row where Vettel's strategy has been thwarted. And, like in Spain, Red Bull did not change Sebastian's tactics even though they were clearly not working. Once the German was behind Button in the first stint and on a lighter fuel load, a three-stop plan was destined to fail. He may have caught Button in his second stint, but all he had was a negative gap to Button when he needed to be ten seconds or more in front.

Switching to a two-stop would have, more likely than not, ensured 2nd place. Instead, again like in Barcelona, team-mate Webber capitalised after another tactically smart race that was made stronger by an excellent middle stint on a heavy fuel load. Vettel may be grabbing the headlines, and a lot of that is due to his age, his potential, and his Saturday heroics. He is, after all, leading Webber 7-0 in qualifying although the Australian has, up till this year, been regarded as a qualifying specialist.

REJECT OF THE RACE
Rubens Barrichello
Fought with Sutil before Brawn's first DNF

Toyota rebounded extremely well from their Monaco humiliation, which was always on the cards given that Istanbul was always likely to suit the TF109s better. Jarno Trulli started 5th and, having beaten Webber off the line, could have been a real thorn in Red Bull's flesh had he stayed there, in which case both Vettel and Webber would have been compromised. But his own error at turn 9 on lap one allowed Webber through, and from there Trulli spent the race battling against the fast-starting Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg actually got ahead of the Toyota at the first stops, but Trulli ran longer at the second stops and retook 4th place, holding it to the flag. Meanwhile Timo Glock, who had been strong in both qualifying and race trim this year, reverted to last year's form. That is, a so-so qualifying left him 13th, but able to run a very long first stint. Up to 12th after Barrichello's spin, a consistent race pace and clever strategy meant he picked off two cars at each of his two stops, and he salvaged a point for 8th.

Even though Rosberg could not hold off Trulli for 4th, Williams had reason to come away from Turkey greatly encouraged. Although they had squandered their double-decker diffuser advantage early in the season, ironically now that others have latched onto the twin-deck concept, other developments have moved Williams ahead. It is a good sign for the races ahead. Nico's race was made after a poor Q3 by an awesome start that propelled him from 9th to 5th and into the battle with Trulli.

Williams should have had a double points finish to celebrate, with Kazuki Nakajima looking set to break his season duck. Having missed the Q2 cut again, the Japanese driver also made an excellent start into 10th, before a lengthy first stint lifted him to a net 7th after his first stop. But a problem with the front left wheel cover at the second stop demoted him back out of deserved points. Which makes you wonder whether the trouble those covers potentially cause are worth the tiny aero gain their provide.

Kimi Raikkonen had started 6th, but a bad getaway dropped him to 9th which is also where he finished. He was one of Glock's victims at the first stops, but he made up a place on Fernando Alonso in the second round. Battling for the podium at the last race in Monaco is where Kimi probably feels he ought to be - not traipsing in and around the tail of the points. It's hard to see how he can be getting too exciting about his racing at the moment, and the politically charged climate is probably turning him off even more.

In our Monaco review we said that Robert Kubica could not afford to sleepwalk through the rest of the season, and indeed Turkey was his best race since he almost challenged for the win in Melbourne. The heaviest fuel load of the Q3 runners meant he started 10th, but a good start elevated him to 8th and Nakajima's misfortune promoted the BMW up one more place. The Pole is finally off the mark in 2009. Nick Heidfeld had a Glock-like strategy from 11th on the grid, but not Glock-like pace, and 11th was where he finished.

Ahead of him in 10th would have been a disappointed Alonso. 8th on the grid is roughly what he could have expected, but not when he was running on fumes. His strategy was always likely to result in him losing positions. He has since complained that Renault have not put any new parts on the R29 for a few races. That is not surprising given that Renault are not the biggest spenders and, having spent most of last year playing catch-up, one wonders if they have the resolve and resources to do it again this season.

To digress momentarily onto the topic of the FIA-FOTA war, this review is being written after the FIA has announced the 2010 entry list, which as expected in some quarters has not only given Williams and Force India confirmed entries, but has also handed Ferrari and the Red Bull teams confirmed entries despite those three squads remaining in the FOTA fold and still making their entries very provisional. Entries have also been granted to USF1, Campos Grand Prix and the hitherto unpublicised Manor Grand Prix effort.

At the same time, Toyota's target of a first victory has looked as distant as ever since they blew their opportunity in Bahrain. In other words, all four of these manufacturers have been throwing their money at - what exactly? - and the signs are that they are queasy about continuing the high-level spending now given the economic climate and the distinct unlikelihood of dramatically improving results. And along comes Max's ultimatum - sign up unconditionally or start your own series.

How likely is it that these manufacturers, some of whom are already questioning the amount of spending on this year's poorly-performing machines, will want to invest during the second half of this season on setting up a new series from scratch? If the likes of Renault, BMW and Toyota really have a philosophical opposition to the FIA's governance, why not just pull the pin on F1 altogether? Which would leave very few teams threatening a breakaway series, which therefore would not happen.

This is classic divide-and-rule by Max. But whereas previously the FIA would put Ferrari in a position that others would want to follow, here Ferrari's opposition appears genuine and giving them a confirmed entry doesn't mean the other teams will now play ball. Instead, having sensed the other manufacturers' financial nervousness, this time around the FIA has put the manufacturer teams in a position that might make them want to desert, so in fact this time it's Ferrari that will have no choice but to follow the FIA's suit.

McLaren's deficiencies were shown up again here as they were in Barcelona, with the MP4/24s being 15kph slower at the apexes of turn 8 then any other car. Hamilton went out in Q1 again despite no human error, but he ended up beating Kovalainen home on the basis of Heikki making an extra stop. Still, it was only 13th and 14th place, and no one really cared. Silverstone, being another aero-dependent track, will be interesting - including for Hamilton, this year left as a bit-player in the Button party.

Lewis' Q1 indignity was compounded by the fact that Sutil in the Force India actually made it through - he must've liked his Q2 experience in Monaco. After a poor start, in the opening stanza of the race the German was competitive too, passing Piquet and Hamilton, but his two-stop strategy did not work and he finished second-last. Team-mate Giancarlo Fisichella's Turkish curse continued with an early brake failure, but at least this year he didn't ram someone at the first corner.

Which leaves Toro Rosso as the most uncompetitive team in Istanbul, and Sebastien Bourdais was by far the less competitive of the two drivers. Qualifying last, despite a one-stop strategy he still finished last, whereas Sebastien Buemi bucked the trend by actually making a two-stop plan work better than just one stop. Arguably Bourdais was more looking forward to his plum Peugeot drive in the Le Mans 24 hours, while Toro Rosso wait for their double-decker diffuser, but that's not coming until Hungary.