Qualifying only threw up some minor surprises. The Force India is too good a car for Vitantonio Liuzzi to be knocked out in Q1. Jaime Alguersuari followed up his splendid Sepang performance by out-qualifying team-mate Sebastien Buemi, who must have been shaken, even subconsciously, after he lost his front wheels at the end of the long straight during free practice - followed by seeing his cousin, Natacha Gachnang, break her leg in a GT1 race at Abu Dhabi in another can’t-stop-at-end-of-straight accident.

Schumacher only just crept into Q3, and when he got there was out-qualified by Robert Kubica’s Renault, whilst team-mate Nico Rosberg was an excellent 4th. Surely things couldn’t go more awry for Schumi in the race? Another driver continuing a run of low-key performances was Felipe Massa, starting 7th to Fernando Alonso’s 3rd, whilst after seemingly dominating Q1 and Q2, Lewis Hamilton lost his way in Q3 and now finds himself trailing Button 1-3 in the qualifying stakes.

But it was Sebastian Vettel taking his third pole in four races this year, as Red Bull continued to make the top spot on the grid their own. Make no mistake, this was a scintillating lap, a quarter of a second faster than Mark Webber in the sister car. Vettel was carrying less wing on his RB6, resulting in a straight line difference of only a few kilometres per hour. And yet he matched Webber through the twistier first two sectors, and pulled out the gap purely in sector three. Sheer inherent class, yet again.

Not is Vettel is the perfect package by any means. One of Vettel’s weaknesses from last year which he looked like he had resolved was his starts, but his getaway on race day was yet another disappointing one. He got swamped by Webber but also the jump-starting Alonso. With inclement weather in the air and tyre changes imminent, it would be a clear advantage to be in front of your team-mate. Red Bull’s experience in Melbourne had already proved that.

Here it ended up not mattering much, for this would be a topsy-turvy day. Firstly the safety car came out after Liuzzi lost control, taking out Kamui Kobayashi - still to record a finish this year - and the hapless Buemi, already knocked out in similar fashion by Kamui in Australia and recovering from his Friday adventures. On a day when car control throughout the field was supreme in tricky conditions, and despite stiff competition later in the race, Liuzzi cemented 'Reject of the Race' then and there.

The Ferraris, Red Bulls, Hamilton, Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello and Adrian Sutil (amongst others) all soon came in for intermediates. You can understand the rationale. If the rain was going to settle in, getting the stop done would give you track position advantage over anyone stopping a lap later during the safety car sequence, and obviously anyone stopping after the race went green again. But the track was simply not wet enough, and in this regard you have to question why so many chose to dive in.

Previously, the Bridgestone intermediate was renowned for having a huge operating window, from a track that is close to bone dry to when the circuit is virtually flooded. This year, that window has narrowed significantly. The teams have had enough experience with the tyre, in rain-affected winter testing, in Australia and in Malaysia, to get a sense of that. The inters were always going to burn out quickly on the marginally wet track. They did - after about one lap.

Forced to quickly switch back to slicks (and in Alonso’s case having had to take his drive-through penalty), these drivers found themselves a full pit stop or more behind Rosberg leading assuredly, Button, Kubica and the other Renault of Vitaly Petrov, as well as behind Heikki Kovalainen in the Lotus who was up to 6th at one stage! But the major talking point out of those second stops was the drag race down pit lane between Hamilton and Vettel, for which they both received a reprimand after the race.

In this writer’s opinion, that was far too lenient. They were already side-by-side going into pit lane. Then, yes, Hamilton was released into Vettel’s path. Normally that in itself results in a penalty. But here, the releases were virtually simultaneous, and it was fair enough that Lewis was let out. But the extra split second of acceleration that Vettel had had drew him alongside the McLaren. At this point Hamilton squirted on the power, and almost lost the rear end. Imagine if he did and he had spun into other pit crew.

Given that Sebastian was alongside and already in the ‘fast lane’ (to borrow the concept from Indycars), Hamilton ought to have ceded and not fought. He held the tank-slapper and kept running alongside the Red Bull. At which point Vettel edged him across, Hamilton shaving past other teams’ wheel guns and air hoses. This was immature and irresponsible by Sebastian when both cars were on the speed limiter and it was not as though Hamilton was going to blast past.

It is true that retrospective time penalties or grid penalties for the next race do spoil either the final result or affects the following race, but at the same time a reprimand means absolutely nothing. Two races in a row, Hamilton has been involved in incidents that would have been severely frowned upon in days past. There is a fine line between hard racing and ugly tactics, and the stewards won’t always get it right or be fully consistent, but drivers can’t be allowed to dangerously keep pushing the envelope either.

But what the extra stops had done was to set the scene for great charges by Vettel and Hamilton. They picked off Barrichello and Jarno Trulli, then Webber, then Sutil (and in so doing Lewis mugged Sebastian as well), and then they caught up to one M. Schumacher. These were battles we had been waiting to see, Lewis vs Michael, new Wunderkind vs old Wunderkind. Michael’s guile held the McLaren off for several laps, but it was inevitable Hamilton would get past. Vettel wasted no time in doing likewise.

More on Schumacher’s struggles later. By lap 19, the rain was starting to get heavier. Rosberg made an error, Button caught up and dived past comfortably. It was testament again to Jenson’s feel in varying conditions, and the killer instinct that winners have, and which the likes of Rosberg, for all his consistency, do not. At any rate, it was wet enough to finally warrant intermediates. The likes of Schumacher and Webber dived in earlier, and placed themselves back ahead of Hamilton and Vettel.

Further back, the Ferraris came in together. A struggling Massa had simply not made as much progress having been stuck behind his compatriot Barrichello, whom he was timid in attacking, and Alonso had had to recover from his drive-through penalty. Alonso dive-bombed inside Massa going into the pits to ensure he did not have to queue, but truth be told he was already alongside the Brazilian coming out of the hairpin. Nevertheless, the brewing intra-team battle at Ferrari just got a whole lot more interesting.

Then the safety car was deployed for the second time, after Alguersuari clipped Bruno Senna’s Hispania and spread front wing debris. It wasn’t completely uncalled for, but to say that it was a rather soft reason for neutralising the race would be an understatement. The cynics would suggest that it was an unsubtle way to obliterate the lead that Button, Rosberg, Kubica and Petrov held, and to bring the likes of Hamilton, Vettel, Webber, Schumacher and Alonso back into the game. This writer is tempted to join that club.

If the safety car succeeded in bunching the field back up, Button took that concept to a whole new level with his antics as the race was about to restart, by slowing down so much at the hairpin that Hamilton had to go off the track in avoidance. He remained unnecessarily slow such that the field was still squashed coming into the last corner. Vettel dived down the inside of Hamilton who was inside of Webber, and the Australian was the unlucky one who got shoved wide which ruined any chance he had.

For the second time this race, both Vettel and Hamilton got away with questionable manoeuvres. Here they could probably claim to have the rules on their side, as they stipulate that cars can overtake at the safety car line, which in this case was before the last corner. Your rival was fair game at the last turn. To avoid such desperate moves, perhaps the rule should be amended such that passing is allowed after the last corner if the safety car line is before it, and after the safety car line if it is past the last turn.

But the situation could have been avoided altogether if Button had not concertinaed the field so much. What was the point? If he had backed off sufficiently down the long straight, he could have taken the hairpin at a reasonably slow pace, accelerated out, gained enough gap on Rosberg to be safe at the last corner, and sail off unchallenged down the front straight. There was simply no reason to bunch everyone up that much. Arguably, it contravened the regulations. Again, no sanction of any kind was applied.

Schumacher restarted in 5th. At turn 7, Hamilton took the outside line which gave him the grip to blast down the inside of the Mercedes at turn 8. A lap and half later, Michael was 9th, Sutil, Alonso and Vettel having made it by as well. Even his protégé Massa caught up to him, although the master would not let the pupil past. When the time came for another set of inters, Michael was in first and gained from that, but by the end of the race his tyres were shot, Petrov and Massa humbled him, and he finished 10th.

In his entire F1 career to date, even when he drove an uncompetitive Ferrari in 2005, Michael never looked so mortal. What is going wrong? Is there something awry with his chassis? Has age taken its toll on his ability? Perhaps. But it is also arguable that the answer is psychological. Schumi has never been the coolest customer; just think of Adelaide ’94, Jerez ’97, Spa ’98, or Monaco ’06. One can suggest that he has lost the thing that gave him his edge in days past, and it is simply messing with his mind.

All half-decent Grand Prix drivers can be within 5 or 10 percent of the very best. The greats can tap into that extra ability. Different drivers have different keys to unlocking that edge. For the likes of a Gilles Villeneuve or Mika Hakkinen or these days a Vettel, it is the sheer thrill of driving on the limit. For the likes of an Alain Prost or these days a Button, it is having a perfectly sorted car. For the likes of a Nigel Mansell it was the lure of battle. For the likes of an Alonso or Kubica it is the comfort of a supportive team.

For the likes of Ayrton Senna or these days a Hamilton, it is the near-arrogance of sheer self-belief. But for Schumacher it was always a confidence of a different kind. This was a man who would test, test, test. He would leave the Monaco GP weekend during its Friday break to go back to Italy for more testing. He would prime himself physically. He was used to having a team built around him, designing a car around him, with a tyre manufacturer supplying compounds made around him.

Add to that some appreciation of the inherent talent at his disposal, and he would turn up at a race weekend knowing that he was better prepared than anyone else, he had left no stone unturned, there was no variable that he could not cope with. It was down to him, and if he delivered, nothing could go wrong. Logic said that when everything’s in place, he could not possibly lose. That allowed him to find his edge. It also explained why, at certain crucial moments, he could not countenance losing. It just could not be.

Right now, everything is not in place. He cannot test. He doesn’t know every nuance about his car. He has joined an existing team, the team hasn’t come around him. The car was designed probably more for Button than for him. Bridgestone’s tyres aren’t made for him. With doubts and uncertainties floating around in his head, with questions that remain unanswered, he simply does not have the assurance to tap into those extra reserves of ability, and so he languishes amongst the also-rans.

No one doubts that the skill, the motivation and the computer-like intelligence still exists. But here is where experience might actually hurt him rather than help him. Take team-mate Rosberg. He has also joined what was the Brawn team. The Mercedes W01 isn’t designed around him either. He too had no previous experience of the narrower front tyre. With the greatest respect, he is probably less cerebral than Michael. But he is also the son of Keke Rosberg, one of the best devil-may-care drivers of the last 30 years.

That plus the exuberance of youth means what he doesn’t know, he doesn’t care about. He has fewer unanswered questions, so he is more able to just get in and drive. If both Michael and Nico performed at 100% in equal machinery, I would put my money on Schumi. It’s just that right now Nico is at 95% or close to 100%, and Michael is only at around 80 to 85%. Michael is discovering what it must have been like to be Nelson Piquet at Benetton in 1991, facing up to a young Schumi in his first few Grands Prix.

Piquet thrived on getting a team around him and being an undisputed number one. In 1991, he couldn’t understand how his upstart team-mate could find tenths in places where his experience-cum-caution-cum-doubt told him those tenths did not exist. Michael’s ultimate ability was to eliminate doubt and therefore unrestrain himself. He cannot erase all the doubts and subconsciously cannot find his limits. The clock is now well and truly ticking for him to cast aside the questions, and just drive.

Hamilton not only took Schumacher, but he turned that move down the inside at turn 8 into his modus operandi. He overcame Petrov in the same way, and after he easily took Kubica, he set about hunting down Rosberg. Pitting for his final set of intermediates a lap earlier than the German gave him the perfect opportunity to pull the same move on Nico, and although Rosberg was able to fight back at first, eventually he did surrender 2nd place to the McLaren.

For all the tribulations of the day, it had been a tremendously pugnacious drive by Hamilton, although not good enough to overcome Button. Like in Melbourne, this was a day for taking the right number of gambles, all at the right time. In changing conditions, when grip understanding and tyre management can be key, few are better than Jenson. He deserves his two wins so far, his championship lead, and the confidence he has gained which will allow him to take on Hamilton even in fully dry conditions.

Hamilton’s rise up the field carried his arch-nemesis Alonso with him. The Spaniard had spent the whole race quietly recovering from the mayhem of the first six laps, and with his final stop leapt past Kubica for 4th despite pitting a lap later. He may be struggling with engine reliability, but he is equal on points with Hamilton, 11 behind Button, despite three straight average races. He has the wood over the worryingly tepid Massa, whose errors and sheer lack of spark in recent times is starting to raise eyebrows.

Despite all the foregoing discussion about Schumacher, credit must go where credit’s due, and Rosberg is doing a fantastic job. He is 2nd in the points on merit. He is not only maintaining the consistency he showed last year. But, since he doesn’t care why Schumacher is struggling, he must be gaining so much belief in dominating the living legend. That only boosts his level of performance. He is not only extracting the best from the Mercedes, he is possibly exceeding it, even if he remains an incomplete racer.

If Button excels at taking the right gambles at the right time, Red Bull are the exemplar of the exact opposite. Their strategic calls have the hallmark of being trigger-happy, reactive, or aimed at short-term gains only to suffer long-term pain. Add to that more operational woes - hardly any of their tyre stops went smoothly - and genuine tyre wear issues such that they burnt out their intermediates quicker than most, and it seems likely that Vettel and Webber will continue winning battles but may not win the war.

Renault claimed the other two points-scoring places with superbly controlled drives by both Kubica and Petrov, who was undoubtedly one of the stars of the race. It was basically a case of keeping things simple, driving fast, and not panicking. Although Vitaly’s qualifying pace still needs work, Robert’s consistency in getting into Q3, plus the canniness of the team on race day, has the yellow cars edging up to the Mercedes on pace, pulling away from the midfield, and getting closer to joining the top four teams.

Force India will have been disappointed that Sutil did not score in conditions that suited him, however he too seemed to burn his intermediate tyres faster than most. They will be troubled by Renault’s current form. Barrichello and Williams did not have the pace, and Nico Hulkenberg had the ignominy of finishing behind a Lotus, courtesy of a daft decision to try slicks during the second safety car period. An extra stop to correct that error had him playing catch-up for the rest of the race.

Alguersuari drove a brave race for Toro Rosso, staying out on inters longer than anyone early on, going for a third set of those tyres earlier than anyone else on lap 34, but wearing them out so quickly he needed a fourth set late in the race. Still, there are more promising signs from the young Spaniard. Not so from Sauber, which continues to languish in terms of pace and is verging on the embarrassing when it comes to reliability, with yet another double DNF albeit another engine failure for Pedro de la Rosa.

Virgin are matching Sauber in the unreliability stakes, with both cars not starting on the grid, Timo Glock’s VR01 not managing to start at all, Lucas di Grassi leaving the pits several laps late and retiring after eight tours anyway with a clutch failure. It’s one different problem after another, and the car’s pace - Glock was fastest of the new teams again in Q1 means nothing - when it never finishes. With major work needed before Spain, the disruption caused by the Icelandic volcano is yet another setback.

Lotus had some reason to cheer, with Kovalainen beating Hulkenberg home and running in the points early by staying out on slicks rather than change to intermediates in the early laps. Team-mate Trulli did make the error of moving to inters, and therefore was mired towards the back before retiring with an hydraulic failure. This squad remains the one most likely to nibble at the midfield teams and perhaps nab a point on a lucky day. It will be interesting to see the effect of their upgrade package for Barcelona.

Finally, even though they will probably remain around a second shy of Lotus and Virgin, you have to admire HRT’s pluck. From nothing two months ago, their cars are now consistently making it to the chequered flag. They are equal with Lotus with five finishes out of eight so far, compared to Virgin’s sole classification in Malaysia, and Hispania have brought both cars home in each of the last two races, this time Senna ahead of Karun Chandhok. That effort is not to be sneezed at, whatever their speed.