Turkish GP Review

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In hindsight, it was a defining moment of the 2010 season - Mark Webber leading a closely-fought battle for much of the way after mechanical problems struck Sebastian Vettel in qualifying, with the German botching it up when he came to claim the ascendancy. What a difference a year makes, as Vettel eased his way to yet another comfortable victory from pole in this year's Turkish GP, and the frightening prospect of him running away with this year's championship became ever more realistic.
Vettel holds all the aces

Whereas in Malaysia and China the balance in terms of overtaking and tyre wear was just right, the consensus was that the action in Istanbul verged on confusion, with four stops the norm for the frontrunners and a record number of stops in total. The DRS zone started too early, making passing into turn 12 too easy. But I won't be too critical. With these rules, you're bound to get some races that will under-deliver, and others that will over-deliver. On the whole, the punters are loving it and you can't complain about that.

Vettel didn't see much of that action of course, and you just have to take your hat off to him and Red Bull. He overcame his Friday crash and loss of track time to still demolish the field and absolutely nail it when it mattered, in Q3, at the start, and during the race. He already has a 34-point lead when no-one led by more than 14 throughout 2010. The story of the season could turn out to be a four-way battle for 2nd - the other four protagonists from 2010 are at it again, split by only 18 points.

But you just have to applaud the job Sebastian and his crew are doing. What they have done is find the chink in this year's rules. As teams get used to working backwards from where they want to be at the end of the race, you're going to hold the aces if you are gentler on your tyres (as Vettel and his RB7 are), and you have enough of a gap to your rivals to avoid being undercut (add that one to your F1 vocab this year) at the stops. You can then afford to wait until the others blink and reveal their strategy.

In other words, you have the luxury of taking it safe by not pitting (and risking finger trouble by your mechanics) if you're confident your tyres will last, and seeing if others can make up the time of the stop plus the existing gap you had on them. Or you can take it safer by simply following suit, knowing that the gap you had protects you from being leapfrogged. The only race Vettel hasn't won this year was China, and the reason was because he didn't have that comfort, because he had been beaten off the line.

So, in a car that seems as superior as the RB7 is, the key for Sebastian this year will be claiming pole in Q3, getting the start right, and clearing out in the first few laps. It may sound trite but in fact that applies all the way down the field - qualify well, make a good start, and don't get caught up in early-lap jousting but clear out from your main rivals if you can. It's not the end of qualifying as Jarno Trulli has suggested. It may the end of an at-all-costs shoot-out, but qualifying is now intrinsically a strategic aspect of the race.

Vettel's dominance so far is beginning to have overtones of the Michael Schumacher years like '01, '02 or '04. But ironically, Schumi's current struggles - more on that later - leave a lingering question mark over the achievement of blitzing your way to the title. Undoubtedly it means you are the fastest man in the fastest car, and a deserving champion. But does that necessarily mean you have been the best or most complete driver of the year when you have barely had to engage in any wheel-to-wheel combat?

Even though he had a free kick when Vettel crashed on Friday, in every department Webber just cannot match his team-mate. Compared to last year, when he either equalled Sebastian or was a mere tenth or so away, he is slightly off his inspired 2010 form whereas the German has stepped it up a notch, and suddenly the gap is several tenths. Plus the RB7 is most likely better tailored for Vettel as well, and routinely starting 2nd constantly leaves Mark on the dirty side of the grid.

The fact that Nico Rosberg, who as it turned out would struggle massively on full tanks, got in front of the Australian at the start ruined any chance of him stopping Vettel from getting away, but the reality is that on this Sunday afternoon Seb was always going to have things under control. The surprise was that Webber would have such a hard time fending off Fernando Alonso’s Ferrari, having been passed by the Spaniard mid-race and then needing to re-pass him with an excellent move on lap 51.

Fernando got lucky in terms of Lewis Hamilton getting out of his way on the first lap, but he too was stuck in the Rosberg train which also meant he had no chance of attacking Webber earlier and then seeing if he could do anything about Vettel. The answer is he probably couldn’t, but for him to even keep pace with the Red Bulls was impressive, on top of the fact that his qualifying speed was easily the closest he has been this year to the front, and certainly the closest he has been to the McLarens.

The race pace of the Ferrari has always been fine so far this year. But clearly it’s getting better and better, and that’s bringing the qualifying speed of the car up as well. We all know how Maranello managed last year to turn a car that was not quite on the money into a multiple race-winner that all but propelled Alonso to the championship. This year, the improvement has started even earlier. It would not surprise if Alonso became the leader of the chasing pack within the next few races.

The battle of the not-quite-complete weekends

Behind the battle of the men on the podium, the other Ferrari of Felipe Massa - who of course is something of an Istanbul specialist - was for much of the race a part of the battle for 4th between the men who couldn’t string a complete weekend together. Massa had started the race on the back foot from 10th, having not set a time in Q3 and having run out of new options, having pointlessly gone out for a second run in Q1 on options even though Kamui Kobayashi was already eliminated.

Nevertheless, Massa was in the thick of the fight with the McLarens and Rosberg for the first 30-odd laps, as he continues to show just that little bit more sparkle than we saw last year, which has been pleasing to see. But the pit lane proved to be the bane of his race, firstly when he lost a position to Hamilton that he had just taken on track - and how was that not an unsafe release just because he ceded the place anyway? - and then with delays in his third and fourth stops as well.

Hamilton squandered any chance of getting in the podium mix by being over-ambitious at turn 3 on the first lap, and then he got caught up in his thrilling battle with team-mate Jenson Button. It was great, clean, entertaining racing, but the reality is when you fight that hard, inevitably you will lose time and increase tyre wear, both of which are no-nos in 2011. At the same time you don’t want to see racing drivers not duelling, so effectively the McLaren boys found themselves in a Catch-22 at that point.

Lewis’ early first stop meant he got put onto a four-stop strategy. Jenson stayed with three stops and drove a good race overall, including a terrific pass on Rosberg around the outside of turn 14, but by his own admission his second and third stops were made too early, compromising him in the final stint - once again meaning that his best pace was used up too soon, like in China. Throw in one delayed stop each for Lewis and Jenson, and you have a weekend where McLaren only got everything about 75% right.

Mercedes just can’t string a weekend together either. Despite the very promising pace in free practice, their first mistake was once again to put too much unnecessary pressure on themselves in qualifying. Yet again in Q2 they did a run on primes before bolting on options in the dying minutes. This defies understanding. All the other lead teams did an options run straight away. The track does not improve that much during the 15 minutes. And what if there was a late red flag in the session?

In Q3, whereas Red Bull got their one and only run out of the way early, thank you very much, again Mercedes waited until the very end and so turned Rosberg and Schumi’s runs into do-or-die efforts. When you have a car capable of getting onto the front two rows, one would have thought the way to bring the best from your drivers is to give them the psychological relaxation of knowing that even if they stuffed up the first run, there was the option of a second, rather than heaping on the pressure at the end.

As it was, only Nico managed to cope, but then what even he couldn’t handle was how poorly the W02 behaved on full tanks in the opening stint of the race. It’s no good Mercedes having worked out how to extract qualifying pace if they will majorly lose time early in the race. In the end, they made the right strategic call to put Rosberg onto primes for his second and third stints, leaving him with options for the all-important run to the flag. As such he was able to overhaul Button and finish 5th.

Everyone’s into Schumi-bashing right now. I’ll join them!

Schumacher could, and perhaps should, have been a part of the fun as well. Turkey was arguably his best weekend in 2010 and his pace in FP3 had everyone salivating that this, finally, was the beginning of the revival. But it was not to be, after he fluffed his Q3 lap by running too deep into turn 1. Starting 8th he was on the back foot already, before destroying his race completely when he clashed with Vitaly Petrov, which earned him yet another "Reject of the Race" award on the spot.

Enough has been said about the mindlessness and unnecessariness of turning in on the Renault. But for the rest of the race, now mired in the pack, whatever pace he had was hidden as he constantly found himself embroiled in battles and looking lost. He was barged out of the way by Kobayashi and Adrian Sutil, and he was passed by his two former Ferrari lackeys in Rubens Barrichello and Massa. What could have been the best weekend of his comeback so far degenerated into the most humiliating.

No wonder he says he doesn’t have the same joy behind the wheel as he used to. For was his joy ever in racing wheel-to-wheel? Or was it more in driving fast, perfecting the car, and succeeding? Without the best car, and without testing to help him dial his confidence up he can’t do that. Without the joy, the zen and the confidence he will find it hard to put in a mega Q3 lap on demand - and, as Mark Hughes has pointed out, given his age he only needs to lose 0.03s a corner to lose 0.5s a lap around Istanbul anyway.

Without that ability to impose himself and to impose his will on a situation, he also loses his aura and the respect of his rivals. The way the other drivers were treating him during the Turkish GP reminded me of the 2003 Bathurst 1000, when the great Larry Perkins, in semi-retirement and only competing in the V8 endurance events, had clearly lost his edge and was holding up a pack late in the race. If memory serves me right, one of those trapped behind him was Brad Jones, who was no spring chicken himself.

At one stage, Jones got on his radio and bemoaned, “Move over, you old fool!” or words to that effect. This despite the fact that Perkins was a 6-time Bathurst winner, and Jones never won it once. But the truth is, Perkins’ old pace had in fact gone. He was wise enough to know the signs and has never raced again. The question is, can Michael read the current signs and understand his plight? And, if he is the champion we all believe he is, what will he do about it? As a starting point, he needs a clean weekend in Spain.

Buemi the unsung hero raises a strategic dilemma for Renault

Due to time constraints - and the fact that the rest of the field got minimal television coverage throughout the Grand Prix - I will be relatively brief in my comments on the rest of the field. The Renaults of Nick Heidfeld and Petrov were in close company pretty much all race. Sometimes too close; their argy-bargy in the final complex of corners with resultant fist-shaking at each other perhaps pointing to some simmering tensions as the drivers fight for the de facto leadership role within the team.

The bigger issue for Renault is that they both ran four-stop strategies, the same as the leaders, and yet were almost trumped by Sebastien Buemi’s Toro Rosso on a three-stop. It is becoming a trend this season for the midfield teams to deploy more conservative tactics than the frontrunners. With Mercedes and Ferrari on the rise, if the Renaults remain no better than the fifth-best car in the field, the team will have to decide strategically whether to try to chase the leaders or stave off the midfield.

Buemi was the unsung hero of the race, being the best of the three-stoppers and only five laps shy of capturing a brilliant 7th place, as he continues his overall form resurgence this year. Unlike in China, the Toro Rossos were off the pace in qualifying but the Swiss driver turned that to his advantage by being strong when it mattered in the race. The key for him was in making solid progress during all his stints such that he could run at optimal pace and be ahead of the Renaults in the latter stages.

Sebastien’s race made for an interesting comparison with his team-mate Jaime Alguersuari. The Spaniard made a slow start remained at the tail of the midfield whereas Buemi was gaining ground, having started on the primes. But rather than trust that Jaime could ‘do a Webber’ in the final stint, they brought him in after a 10-lap third stint to try to make something happen, meaning that he had to run a 19-lap last stint, which he couldn’t manage, requiring a fourth-stop very late in the race.

Yet again, it is about running your own race with a view to the last stint, engaging in battles with others as necessary, but finding the right balance between aggression and conservatism throughout. It is something Kobayashi is becoming expert at. From the back of the grid after his Q1 problems, he was on-track to leapfrog Buemi and finish ahead of the Renaults had he not clipped Buemi and sustain a puncture. But he still came home 10th - his fourth top-ten finish from as many races this year.

That kind of consistency is all down to racecraft and race management when the Sauber isn’t in the top five cars in the field. Meanwhile, his team-mate Sergio Perez may be gentle on his tyres, but his brownie points from his stunning Melbourne debut have run out. Instead, we are seeing an impetuous side that needs to be tempered. A first lap nosecone change meant he was playing catch-up all race, and in the end he only overhauled the bottom three teams, the Williams cars and Alguersuari.

Sutil finally managed to get the better of Paul di Resta throughout a weekend, out-qualifying the young Scot and staying ahead of him all race until di Resta retired, but once they were undercut by Buemi at the first stops, the Toro Rosso was released but the Force Indias remained stuck in the midfield unable to make further places. But just as Sutil comes to terms with his impressive team-mate, he now has the unnecessary distraction of off-track charges to deal with following his nightclub incident in China.

Amongst the navel-gazers, Williams makes progress but Virgin doesn’t

There were signs of progress at Williams amidst all the navel-gazing surrounding Sam Michael’s departure at the end of the year and the return of one of the Spygate pariahs in Mike Coughlan. Barrichello’s pace in qualifying was impressive, just missing out on Q3, and in the race he had a chance of emulating Buemi, only to suffer KERS issues and drag out his third stint for too long, during which he lost time and track position from which he never recovered.

Pastor Maldonado probably had his strongest weekend so far, qualifying 14th. But he was unable to make any headway throughout the race and any chance he had of points were lost thanks to his drive-through penalty for speeding in the pit lane. The Venezuelan is still yet to do anything to suggest that he deserves the Williams drive on merit, or that he is contributing anything to the development of the car apart from providing the funds for Barrichello and the engineers to work with.

Lotus continue to show signs of having made undeniable improvement, but I feel a little bit sorry for them. They are now much closer to the midfield, and yet they remain so far from getting through to Q2 and, with this year’s very low attrition, still not much hope of scoring points. And so the team has to resort to trying creative things in the race. Here, Trulli only finished ahead of Heikki Kovalainen because he was running a fairly orthodox three-stop strategy whereas the Finn ended up on something quite strange.

Having run solidly in the midfield in the 14th to 17th range throughout the first stint, one can only surmise that the team tried to put him on a two-stop plan, as he did not make a third stop until lap 53. But having suffered from DRS and hydraulics issues throughout the race, even a two-stop strategy would not have allowed him to beat any of the established teams home. Still, there’s no harm in Lotus trying something different, because they’re at no real risk from behind.

Apart from Williams, the other team currently undergoing a bout of introspection is Virgin, but events in Turkey would have only added to their dejection. The much-vaunted upgrade package didn’t work and in fact may have only added to their woes. Is it a case of taking one step back to eventually go two steps forward? But the situation so dispirited Timo Glock that he was out-qualified by team-mate Jerome D’Ambrosio and even by Vitantonio Liuzzi’s HRT. Frankly, neither of those things should happen.

Glock’s mood would only have worsened when he did not even make the start due to being stuck in 5th gear, and D’Ambrosio was hit by a grid penalty for ignoring yellow flags in practice, but on a two-stop strategy he overcame the Hispanias but that was all there was to cheer about. If the upgrades haven’t worked off the shelf, how can they be forced to work later on? Quite simply, it looks like Nick Wirth hasn’t got it right and the team’s disappointment with his work is hardly hidden at present.

HRT keep on improving and their efforts at giving Virgin a run for their money is providing interest at the back of the field. Liuzzi was stunning in Q1 to out-qualify Glock and get within 0.3s of D’Ambrosio. But multiple problems in the race meant several unscheduled stops, whereas Narain Karthikeyan had a clear run. Both HRTs recorded a better fastest lap than D’Ambrosio. Every little victory over the Virgins must surely be a fillip to the Spanish team and compounding their rivals’ worries.



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