The 2012 predictions thread.

[JeremyMcClean]

Bruno Senna will score more points for Williams Renault (under any points system since the 1960s) than his uncle Ayrton did.

And he will NOT get any injuries whatsoever.

I would say differently on that. I agree on him not getting injuries, but scoring points?

That statement is both evil and tasteless ...

Seconded

[DanielPT]

Bruno Senna will score more points for Williams Renault (under any points system since the 1960s) than his uncle Ayrton did.

And he will NOT get any injuries whatsoever.

I would say differently on that. I agree on him not getting injuries, but scoring points?

Bet! Bet! Bet! Bet!

[dr-baker]

Sorry if it seems tasteless. I just think that Bruno will get at least a 6th place, which, considering his past results and Williams recent performance, would be saying something... And I really would love to see Bruno do well in a Williams Renault. I would feel devasted if he couldn't achieve this prediction. Maintaining the lagacy and all that.

[JeremyMcClean]

Sorry if it seems tasteless. I just think that Bruno will get at least a 6th place

Sorry but the legitimacy of that post was lost after that statement

It's not that Bruno Senna is bad, it's that I have no expectations for Williams this year

[AdrianSutil]

Senna will score a few points, but don't expect miracles. I really hope he does well.

Watching him race around Interlagos last year, in an Ayrton helmet and a black & gold Lotus made me smile.

[Klon]

And I predict Senna will get beaten by Maldonado - badly, that is.

[Yannick]

Lots of inexperienced drivers in full season seats will make it easy for the Top 4 teams to score P1 to P8 almost without interference from other teams. Hence, this season will have rather boring results at the top end of the running order. RBR, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren (in whatever order) will share the pie.

[tommykl]

Lots of inexperienced drivers in full season seats will make it easy for the Top 4 teams to score P1 to P8 almost without interference from other teams. Hence, this season will have rather boring results at the top end of the running order. RBR, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren (in whatever order) will share the pie.

Which is why my championships will be very exciting to follow

[James1978]

Lots of inexperienced drivers in full season seats will make it easy for the Top 4 teams to score P1 to P8 almost without interference from other teams. Hence, this season will have rather boring results at the top end of the running order. RBR, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren (in whatever order) will share the pie.

Which is why my championships will be very exciting to follow

I can see only Kimi being an interloper amongst the top 4 teams (a lit like Kubica in 2010), but he's eliminated from Tommy and Bleu's elimination championships too, so on the cars' pecking order from last year you're looking at someone like Di Resta, Kobayashi or RRRMMMNNNN GRRRRRSSSJJJNNNN being world champion.

[dr-baker]

Sorry if it seems tasteless. I just think that Bruno will get at least a 6th place

Sorry but the legitimacy of that post was lost after that statement

It's not that Bruno Senna is bad, it's that I have no expectations for Williams this year

Secretly, I think you're right. Publically, I really really really want to be right about this.

[JeremyMcClean]

Another prediction:

Mercedes will make the podium.

Once.

It will likely be in a race with high attrition and/or rain.

[dr-baker]

Another prediction:

Mercedes will make the podium.

Once.

It will likely be in a race with high attrition and/or rain.

And it'll be with Nico Rosberg, NOT Michael Schumacher...

[Stramala]

Another prediction:

Mercedes will make the podium.

Once.

It will likely be in a race with high attrition and/or rain.

And it'll be with Nico Rosberg, NOT Michael Schumacher...

I would have said that the other way around to make it sound even less plausible.

[Wizzie]

Another prediction:

Mercedes will make the podium.

Once.

It will likely be in a race with high attrition and/or rain.

And it'll be with Nico Rosberg, NOT Michael Schumacher...

I would have said that the other way around to make it sound even less plausible.

Then again, Schumacher spent most of last year looking like he was the more likely of the two to score a podium when he wasn't too busy participating in an all out brawl in the midfield

[DanielPT]

I predict that this year, watching F1 will be like pouring acid in your eyes. I know, it might already be too late to make such a prediction...

[Wizzie]

I predict that it'll be Fernando Alonso that leaves Ferrari at the end of this year, not Felipe Massa.

Hear me out on this one guys. Last year, Ferrari were simply crap compared to McLaren and Red Bull and the year before, it was the team that cost Alonso the championship plus the first half of the year for Ferrari was average anyway. If the new Ferrari is crap and given Alonso's tendencies to throw the toys out of the pram at the slightest provocation, I think he'll take his ball and head out to another team as a result.

[DanielPT]

I predict that it'll be Fernando Alonso that leaves Ferrari at the end of this year, not Felipe Massa.

Hear me out on this one guys. Last year, Ferrari were simply crap compared to McLaren and Red Bull and the year before, it was the team that cost Alonso the championship plus the first half of the year for Ferrari was average anyway. If the new Ferrari is crap and given Alonso's tendencies to throw the toys out of the pram at the slightest provocation, I think he'll take his ball and head out to another team as a result.

Hum... Alonso will only change teams if he is at least assured of a front of the grid drive. The only option he has is Red Bull (which is an unlikely move). I still think that the best option is for him to stay at Ferrari.

[mario]

Another prediction:

Mercedes will make the podium.

Once.

It will likely be in a race with high attrition and/or rain.

And it'll be with Nico Rosberg, NOT Michael Schumacher...

I would have said that the other way around to make it sound even less plausible.

Then again, Schumacher spent most of last year looking like he was the more likely of the two to score a podium when he wasn't too busy participating in an all out brawl in the midfield

Technically, Schumacher was the closest of the two drivers to scoring a podium finish in Canada (though Rosberg did manage to work his way into the lead of a race twice, in China and Belgium, even if he wasn't able to fully capitalise on those opportunities in the end). I guess it'll come down to a chaotic race that disrupts the expected pecking order next year, in which case it could be either driver who profits.

[Stramala]

I predict that it'll be Fernando Alonso that leaves Ferrari at the end of this year, not Felipe Massa.

Hear me out on this one guys. Last year, Ferrari were simply crap compared to McLaren and Red Bull and the year before, it was the team that cost Alonso the championship plus the first half of the year for Ferrari was average anyway. If the new Ferrari is crap and given Alonso's tendencies to throw the toys out of the pram at the slightest provocation, I think he'll take his ball and head out to another team as a result.

I see your theory and raise you this.

Spanish sponsors follow Alonso, this has been long established. The case of Santander remaining at McLaren after Alonso's departure is and exception due to the circumstances - they had just bought a group of struggling British banks and were beginning a process of rebranding all of them under the Santander group. Backing statistically the greatest British team of all time, while having two British world champions as their drivers, it made perfect sense for Santander to stay put and use F1 as a launch pad for their new British venture vis-a-vis advertising.

So, Massa is leaving because he's sh*t.

[IdeFan]

Constructor's Championship:

1st - Red Bull Racing - Still top dog, but not by as big a margin as it was last year, Vettel continues to dominate Webber, who takes one last win before retiring at the end of the year.

2nd - McLaren - Some weekends they are capable of matching RBR, some weekends they are way off, but no one else gets as close to RBR as McLaren. Lewis bounces back from last year and beats Button on points, but again it is very close. Both drivers take points off each other which hampers any title bid, but it probably wasn't on anyway.

3rd - Toleman Lotus - A rejuvenated Enstone team leap into third place, but its more because of Ferrari and Mercedes screwing up than any great gains in performance. Kimi is back to his best and piles on the points in the first half of the season. Grosjean starts a little slower but starts scoring consistenly too by mid season. First Ferrari and then Mercedes overhaul them on speed later in the year, but neither scores enough points, 3rd-4th-5th is very close. No wins for Lotus, but Kimi gets a few podiums.

4th - Ferrari - Looks like its made of Lego and drives like it too. Ferrari have a dreadful start and struggle to score in the first half of the season. Still, they are too good a team to be down for long and are the third fastest team by the end of the year. Alonso drives the wheels of his car and beats Kimi to 5th in the championship, but the team's constructors chances are badly hampered by Felipe Massa, who wins DBTMOTY.

5th - Mercedes Benz - The team struggles to shake off its BAR DNA. A decent start (4th fastest behind Lotus) gives way to the now traditional mid season slump. The team fight back up to 4th fastest behind Ferrari by the end of the year, but with few points in the mid season they are consigned to 5th. Schumie takes a lucky podium late in the year and retires. Still no wins for Nico...

6th - Force India - More consistent than last year but with Lotus' improvement there is no way for them to break into the top 5. Consistent points for both di Resta and Hulkenberg, but nothing to write home about.

7th - Sauber - Business as usual for Sauber, midfield anonymity for most of the year. Kobayashi regains his spark and puts in the occasional stunning drive, but the car just doesn't have the speed.

8th - Williams Renault - After 2011 the only way is up for Williams, sadly they are unable to climb any higher than 8th. The extra cash brought in by their two pay drives allows for some development by the end of the year, but its only a glimmer of hope.

9th - Torro Rosso - Two rookies doesn't work out for STR, with the senior team dominating the championship, Mateschitz loses interest and sells up at the end of the year.

10th - Caterham - Kovalainen scores the teams first points and snaps at the heels of the Torro Rossos all year, Trulli's continued indifference hampers and chance of beating them in the constructors championship however.

11th - HRT - De la Rosa shows he really deserved a better shot at F1 with some feisty near "Kovalainenlike" drives. Still the car just isn't capable of rising any higher than 21st on merit and there are still no points scored. Karthikeyan is usually behind the Marussias and is fired halfway through the year, to be replaced with another anonymous pay driver, who doesn't do much better.

12th - Marussia - Marussia turn out to be the new Spyker - a small volume car manufacture you've never heard of buy an F1 team, don't make the proper investments and leave before the end of the year. Without even Wirth on board the team slides behind HRT on pace and go bust at the end of the year. Glock leaves the team in disgust just after mid season and finds a drive in sportscars, his F1 career sadly over.

[mario]

I predict that it'll be Fernando Alonso that leaves Ferrari at the end of this year, not Felipe Massa.

Hear me out on this one guys. Last year, Ferrari were simply crap compared to McLaren and Red Bull and the year before, it was the team that cost Alonso the championship plus the first half of the year for Ferrari was average anyway. If the new Ferrari is crap and given Alonso's tendencies to throw the toys out of the pram at the slightest provocation, I think he'll take his ball and head out to another team as a result.

I see your theory and raise you this.

Spanish sponsors follow Alonso, this has been long established. The case of Santander remaining at McLaren after Alonso's departure is and exception due to the circumstances - they had just bought a group of struggling British banks and were beginning a process of rebranding all of them under the Santander group. Backing statistically the greatest British team of all time, while having two British world champions as their drivers, it made perfect sense for Santander to stay put and use F1 as a launch pad for their new British venture vis-a-vis advertising.

So, Massa is leaving because he's sh*t.

And out of the two drivers at Ferrari, it has been Massa that has come in from increasing pressure from the senior management. Domenicali has said that Massa is driving for his seat this year, and considering the drivers that Ferrari has lined up (Bianchi at Force India, a covetous eye on Perez, a watching brief and potential option on Kubica to name a few) Massa has to shape up fast.

Ironically, DanielPT, your prediction that the FIA might become a little ban happy in pre-season testing could be closer to the mark than you anticipated - James Allen has just reported via his Twitter feed that Charlie Whiting will attend the first test session in Jerez because a number of the 2012 cars have some very big questions over their legality.
Now, it is very unusual for Whiting to attend pre-season testing since normally the FIA can't take any action against a team until the first scruitineering session - i.e. during the first race weekend - because test sessions are not a formal competitive event, and therefore exempt from the FIA's normal technical regulations. Whatever has prompted this move, it must be something fairly substantial, because when has Whiting ever attended a test session before?

[DanielPT]

I predict that it'll be Fernando Alonso that leaves Ferrari at the end of this year, not Felipe Massa.

Hear me out on this one guys. Last year, Ferrari were simply crap compared to McLaren and Red Bull and the year before, it was the team that cost Alonso the championship plus the first half of the year for Ferrari was average anyway. If the new Ferrari is crap and given Alonso's tendencies to throw the toys out of the pram at the slightest provocation, I think he'll take his ball and head out to another team as a result.

I see your theory and raise you this.

Spanish sponsors follow Alonso, this has been long established. The case of Santander remaining at McLaren after Alonso's departure is and exception due to the circumstances - they had just bought a group of struggling British banks and were beginning a process of rebranding all of them under the Santander group. Backing statistically the greatest British team of all time, while having two British world champions as their drivers, it made perfect sense for Santander to stay put and use F1 as a launch pad for their new British venture vis-a-vis advertising.

So, Massa is leaving because he's sh*t.

And out of the two drivers at Ferrari, it has been Massa that has come in from increasing pressure from the senior management. Domenicali has said that Massa is driving for his seat this year, and considering the drivers that Ferrari has lined up (Bianchi at Force India, a covetous eye on Perez, a watching brief and potential option on Kubica to name a few) Massa has to shape up fast.

Ironically, DanielPT, your prediction that the FIA might become a little ban happy in pre-season testing could be closer to the mark than you anticipated - James Allen has just reported via his Twitter feed that Charlie Whiting will attend the first test session in Jerez because a number of the 2012 cars have some very big questions over their legality.
Now, it is very unusual for Whiting to attend pre-season testing since normally the FIA can't take any action against a team until the first scruitineering session - i.e. during the first race weekend - because test sessions are not a formal competitive event, and therefore exempt from the FIA's normal technical regulations. Whatever has prompted this move, it must be something fairly substantial, because when has Whiting ever attended a test session before?

If that happens I will be an happy man. Perhaps the field will be drastically changed this season!

Seriously now, this is a strange move. We know that many of the guys probably run illegal cars on the tests so what is the whole point? Is FIA afraid that something might slip under the radar? It is all a bit weird really... They could not have come up with this idea on their own. Someone gave a lights up and so this is bound to be another gate. Now that we have two factions in the teams (those with FOTA and those outside of it) and rumours that either of those groups do not follow the RRA in a year where the concord agreement is going to be signed. The pieces are now in motion my friends, let's hope nothing too painful for F1 happens.

[Wizzie]

Ironically, DanielPT, your prediction that the FIA might become a little ban happy in pre-season testing could be closer to the mark than you anticipated - James Allen has just reported via his Twitter feed that Charlie Whiting will attend the first test session in Jerez because a number of the 2012 cars have some very big questions over their legality.
Now, it is very unusual for Whiting to attend pre-season testing since normally the FIA can't take any action against a team until the first scruitineering session - i.e. during the first race weekend - because test sessions are not a formal competitive event, and therefore exempt from the FIA's normal technical regulations. Whatever has prompted this move, it must be something fairly substantial, because when has Whiting ever attended a test session before?

If that happens I will be an happy man. Perhaps the field will be drastically changed this season!

Seriously now, this is a strange move. We know that many of the guys probably run illegal cars on the tests so what is the whole point? Is FIA afraid that something might slip under the radar? It is all a bit weird really... They could not have come up with this idea on their own. Someone gave a lights up and so this is bound to be another gate. Now that we have two factions in the teams (those with FOTA and those outside of it) and rumours that either of those groups do not follow the RRA in a year where the concord agreement is going to be signed. The pieces are now in motion my friends, let's hope nothing too painful for F1 happens.

And now we know who were the poor sods who set off the alarm bells

[Jocke1]

Backing statistically the greatest British team of all time, it made perfect sense for Santander to stay put and use F1 as a launch pad for their new British venture vis-a-vis advertising.

Williams have more Constructors titles. They would be a better choice for Santander.

[mario]

Ironically, DanielPT, your prediction that the FIA might become a little ban happy in pre-season testing could be closer to the mark than you anticipated - James Allen has just reported via his Twitter feed that Charlie Whiting will attend the first test session in Jerez because a number of the 2012 cars have some very big questions over their legality.
Now, it is very unusual for Whiting to attend pre-season testing since normally the FIA can't take any action against a team until the first scruitineering session - i.e. during the first race weekend - because test sessions are not a formal competitive event, and therefore exempt from the FIA's normal technical regulations. Whatever has prompted this move, it must be something fairly substantial, because when has Whiting ever attended a test session before?

If that happens I will be an happy man. Perhaps the field will be drastically changed this season!

Seriously now, this is a strange move. We know that many of the guys probably run illegal cars on the tests so what is the whole point? Is FIA afraid that something might slip under the radar? It is all a bit weird really... They could not have come up with this idea on their own. Someone gave a lights up and so this is bound to be another gate. Now that we have two factions in the teams (those with FOTA and those outside of it) and rumours that either of those groups do not follow the RRA in a year where the concord agreement is going to be signed. The pieces are now in motion my friends, let's hope nothing too painful for F1 happens.

And now we know who were the poor sods who set off the alarm bells

Maybe, but as I pointed out elsewhere it could be that Whiting has gone to Jerez to inspect some of the cars that are being launched there, not necessarily just the cars which have been launched right now. Teams do often ask Whiting to review components to gauge the reaction of the FIA to a new device in advance of it being launched, so it is possible that Whiting has been asked to attend by the FIA to inspect such a component for one of the upcoming launches. I guess that we will find out soon enough what is going on...

Backing statistically the greatest British team of all time, it made perfect sense for Santander to stay put and use F1 as a launch pad for their new British venture vis-a-vis advertising.

Williams have more Constructors titles. They would be a better choice for Santander.

Making such a move might have potentially cost Santander more for prematurely ending their contract with McLaren than they would have been willing to pay - plus, to be brutally honest, in the last decade McLaren have only finished outside of the top 3 twice (2007 when they were excluded - though they were still more than competitive enough to have finished within the top 3 - and 2004, when they were 5th in the WCC).
The last time that Williams were that high up in the WCC was back in 2003 when they were 2nd in the WCC, and whilst the more interested motor sport fans will remember what a great team Williams once were, the current team is a shadow of what it once was, whereas McLaren, whilst not having been a WCC since 1998, have consistently won races and challenged for the WCC throughout the past decade. Out of the two, therefore, it makes much more sense to associate yourself with McLaren rather than Williams, as nostalgia doesn't sell quite as well as current success on the track.

[Pedestrian]

I don't have a lot of predictions.
I expect that the hierarchy will stay mostly the same and I only expect improvements from Willaims, Lotus and maybe McLaren.

[East Londoner]

I'll make a few predictions for this year, punishable with a joke avatar should they not occur.

Schumacher will win a race this year.
Raikkonen will end up becoming slightly bored of Group Bahar, and will not complete the season.
Caterham will score more points than last year
I expect Hamilton will end up crashing into a new foe at every weekend, possibly Webber?

[dr-baker]

I'll make a few predictions for this year, punishable with a joke avatar should they not occur.

Schumacher will win a race this year.

For some reason, I feel pretty confident that he WON'T.

[JeremyMcClean]

Insane prediction:
Hamilton will not get penalized/not find a reason to get penalized all year.

[Dj_bereta]

-Senna will struggle in first rounds, but end the year with consistents races.
-Schumacher crashing like hamilton did in last year and gets a racing ban.
-Melbourne 2012 will be a repeat of 2002 race.Webber finally wins in your home race and Caterham scores your first point.

Drivers Championship:

1-Vettel
2-Hamilton
3-Webber
4-Button
5-Raikkonen
6-Alonso
7-Massa
8-Grosjean
9-Rosberg
10-Schumacher
11-Hulkenberg
12-Kobayashi
13-Di Resta
14-Perez
15-Senna
16-Riccardo
17-Kovalainen
18-Vergne
19-Maldonado
20-Trulli
21-Glock
22-Delarosa
23-Pic
24-Karthikeyan

Constructors Championship:

1-Red Bull
2-Mclaren
3-Lotus
4-Ferrari
5-Mercedez
6-Force India
7-Sauber
8-Williams
9-Toro Rosso
10-Caterham
11-Marussia
12-Hispania

ROTY Podium:

3rd: Toro Rosso
2nd: Maldonado
1st: Karthikeyan

[JeremyMcClean]

Also, I don't expect much from Lotus (formerly known as Renault) this season. Grosjean gets sacked mid-season and Raikkonen joins another team or something like that.

[dr-baker]

Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren will take the top 3 places in the championship, while Caterham will be 10th (no idea if they will score or not - ), HRT in 11th and Marussia in 12th.

[DanielPT]

Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren will take the top 3 places in the championship, while Caterham will be 10th (no idea if they will score or not - ), HRT in 11th and Marussia in 12th.

Those are some bold predictions!

[dr-baker]

Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren will take the top 3 places in the championship, while Caterham will be 10th (no idea if they will score or not - ), HRT in 11th and Marussia in 12th.

Those are some bold predictions!

I'm going to look a bit silly if it doesn't happen (like Marussia beating HRT as an example...).

[razta]

my predictions:

Merc will win a hand full of races, but not the full championship. mainly they'll be fighting with Ferrari for 3rd spot.

[JeremyMcClean]

I feel confident predicting the season now....

Red Bull - Vettel will obviously be number one, Webber will replace Hamilton as "Mr. Clumsy"
McLaren - Button and Hamilton will be consistent through the whole year
Ferrari - Alonso will win a couple of races, Massa gets sacked at the end of the year
Mercedes - The car will be slower than last year's, Schumacher will retire and Rosberg might be thinking about his career as well
Lotus - Depends on how Räikkönen will adapt to F1, probably will finish 5th
Force India - Hulkenburg shines, di Resta goes anonymous on us
Sauber - Another anonymous year for the team
Toro Rosso - Tost gets fired for firing Buemi and Alguersuari, as Ricciardo and Vergne struggle
Williams - Maldonado leads the team with 7 points
Caterham - Doesn't score points, Kovalainen leaves the team
HRT - Barely makes it to the races
Marussia - Barely qualifies at all

[Wizzie]

Williams - Maldonado leads the team with 7 points

I bet you any money that 6 of those points will come from Monaco

[razta]

My BIAS Prediction..

Redbull/Mclaren very close between the two on RAW pace
Mercedes - Brilliantly fast on the long runs, as admitted by Maaak too
Ferrari - dunno what's happening there
Lotus- could pip Ferrari
Force India - very close to Lotus + Ferrari

[mario]

My BIAS Prediction..

Redbull/Mclaren very close between the two on RAW pace
Mercedes - Brilliantly fast on the long runs, as admitted by Maaak too
Ferrari - dunno what's happening there
Lotus- could pip Ferrari
Force India - very close to Lotus + Ferrari

Allowing for your bias, your predictions seem reasonable given that a number of observers would probably broadly agree with your assessment. Red Bull and McLaren have been relatively coy when it comes to their race pace, but the indication is that the two teams are fairly close and still at the front of the grid - if that is correct, we could see the battle between those teams mostly turning on strategy.
Mercedes do seem to be in a somewhat stronger position this year as the restrictions on diffuser blowing will have partially aided them, plus they have not had anything like the problems they had last year in testing (or, for that matter, the problem Ferrari are thought to have had in testing). Rosberg seems confident enough to suggest Mercedes can "annoy" McLaren and Red Bull, but there are still some suggestions that they are harder on their tyres than the top two teams.

The problem, though, is that so far all of the teams have looked reasonably close together in testing, such that the definition of fastest depends very much on how you process the data. There's a nice analysis of the data here http://abulafiaf1.wordpress.com/2012/03/06/331/ which sheds some light on the testing patterns, but the picture is still inconclusive right now.

[ibsey]

Haven't been following pre-season much this year. Thought it would be a nice change for this year, to avoid all the teams usual preseaon hype & PR speak & just watch the 1st race with as little idea as possible of which teams did what in pre-season testing etc. Hopefully making the first race even more exicting & suprising than other years.

So any predictions I make will purely be a guess.

However I will say that I wish Sauber to have a good season this year. I think they do deserve it, given the way they quitely just get on with the business of F1, remaining committed to it despite limited budgets / resources, with little in the way of results to show for their efforts.