F1 in the (distant) future

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F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 24 Aug 2010, 23:27

OK here's one to bat about a bit in the 2 or 3 days before Spa becomes the topic.....

We may not always like what Bernie does, but he's chuffing good at it :evil: . He's more or less orchestrated single handedly one of the World's major sporting franchises for decades, despite "civil wars" & endless controversies. Nothing goes on without Bernie's approval or knowledge....It takes a special ability to do that, some luck & it's never going to make one popular....

But, he's not getting any younger & there will come a time when he's not controlling every tiny aspect of F! as we know it. When that time comes what will be the future of F1, who will take over? Is there an obvious successor? Does the Ecclestone family have the personalities or aptitude?
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Row Man Gross-Gene » 25 Aug 2010, 00:17

With something like this, my thought/worry is that it will be taken over by a giant soulless corporation (or a shady hedge fund-like company). Bernie may or may not be terrible (I don't actually know much about him or his reign), but since his own wealth is tied up in it, a sudden downturn wouldn't cause him to pull the plug. I don't know that I could say the same for a large company. That said, who has the kind of money to buy the rights?

Of course Bernie may be one of the immortal ones feeding off the blood of the living, in which case the point would be moot. We can only hope. ;)
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby dr-baker » 25 Aug 2010, 00:26

I'm just hoping that Max Mosley didn't step down as FIA President so he could become Bernie's puppet/apprentice...
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby AndreaModa » 25 Aug 2010, 00:30

I don't really quite understand who actually owns F1, the way I see it is the CVC own the rights to the sport and effectively run it, but have installed Ecclestone as the head honcho of the operation. When exactly did CVC purchase the 'rights' and off whom? The FIA?

When Bernie packs up, it'll be either Arabs stepping in, or some CEO of CVC or another large multi-national company and things will hit the fan because they'll run it like a business (which granted it is at the moment, but remember Bernie both raced in and owned a team in the sport and so still cares greatly about the sporting aspect of it, it's just he's forced to try and make money out of it by his employers).

The only way I can see F1 continuing sustainably post-Bernie is if another former team owner or someone from the FIA like Todt, or any of the others who sit on the council come in to replace him. Otherwise things will most likely go pear-shaped, and fast...
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby shinji » 25 Aug 2010, 00:54

I'll do it if they need someone.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 25 Aug 2010, 01:35

shinji wrote:I'll do it if they need someone.


This is either "Oh dear God".....

or

"Right you're in"..........
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby mario » 25 Aug 2010, 02:15

AndreaModa wrote:I don't really quite understand who actually owns F1, the way I see it is the CVC own the rights to the sport and effectively run it, but have installed Ecclestone as the head honcho of the operation. When exactly did CVC purchase the 'rights' and off whom? The FIA?

When Bernie packs up, it'll be either Arabs stepping in, or some CEO of CVC or another large multi-national company and things will hit the fan because they'll run it like a business (which granted it is at the moment, but remember Bernie both raced in and owned a team in the sport and so still cares greatly about the sporting aspect of it, it's just he's forced to try and make money out of it by his employers).

The only way I can see F1 continuing sustainably post-Bernie is if another former team owner or someone from the FIA like Todt, or any of the others who sit on the council come in to replace him. Otherwise things will most likely go pear-shaped, and fast...

Here is how it goes - in 1995, Ecclestone buys the commercial rights from the FIA for a 14 year period, paying the FIA an annual fee in return (and, incidentally, was partially behind the teams vetoing the Concorda agreement - because the rights gave Ecclestone the right to commercialise the names of the teams, which they objected to, quite rightly seeing those names as their intellectual property). Bernie created SLEC Holdings (although this company would be reformed and renamed many times), which was the holding company, and transferred the ownership to his wife in 1996 ahead of a flotation on the stock market in 1997 (which is how she came into ownership of the company, and why Bernie' divorce was so expensive for him).

The shares of the company have gone through a number of different owners (and the reason that Bernie lost a lot of his shares and power in FOM was due to legal action by three banks, Bayerische Landesbank, JPMorgan Chase and Lehman Brothers, who were the biggest shareholders at the time, but had minority representation on the board of directors, where Bernie had the most representation).

However, the main interest is what happened in 2005 - that year, CVC Partners came along, and they bought out Bayerische Landesbank, a sizeable proportion of the shares owned by Bernie, along with a sizeable amount of the JP Morgan shareholding. In 2006, they bought Lehman Brothers out as well, and with that, they took control of the company with approximately 70% of the shares in their hands. JPMorgan Chase hold around 20%, and Ecclestone now holds only the remaining 10% (although, shrewd as he is, he used the money CVC paid him for his shares in FOM to buy shares in CVC). That said, realising that he is very effective at what he does, neither the banks or CVC Partners wanted to move Bernie out, and so they have left him to run the commercial activities which, by and large, he has done fairly well.

So, what is most likely to happen, when Bernie is no longer running the show, is CVC Partners will either take over day to day operations, or they will nominate someone to take over. I hope that it is the latter, because I am not sure that the interests of the sport would be best served by a group of venture capitalists in charge (after all, it is because they took on so much debt to buy the company that the tracks are being bled dry - their fees are paying the interest and capital on CVC's debt).
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby AndreaModa » 25 Aug 2010, 02:21

Urgh dear what a mess! In that case then I hope CVC take over full control, subsequently go bust and therefore hand the rights back to the FIA when it's found that no-one in their right minds wants to own the commercial rights to a sport which costs so much money! That way the sport is back in the hands of the people who should be running it, and hopefully alongside FOTA (assuming it's still there) the sport can return to the focus on racing, rather than making money.

I know that's incredibly naiive of me, but let's pretend we're in a world where all your dreams come true...

:D
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 25 Aug 2010, 02:37

Yes it's common knowledge that Bernie acquired the rights in the 1990s & sold them some ten years later. He retains some media rights I believe. Essentially he ran the sport well before that. Hence Niki's "bunch of clowns" quote.
I believe I am right in saying that CVC also own Dorna, who run MotoGP.
CVC, if still involved, would be likely to appoint a similar supremo; someone with a feel for the sport & experience.
Some names, just for the sake of debate might be, Brawn, Whiting, Todt, Dennis. Any others? It has to be someone of standing in the sport. A fit Frank Williams might have been a good option, but I feel it to be too much for him in his state of health, even if aided, as now, by "Squirrel Face".
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby CarlosFerreira » 25 Aug 2010, 04:04

It's not even that shady compared to some stuff out there... but mind-bogglingly complex anyway.

As has been shown, CVC partners rules the show. First off, let's see if F1 as we know it survives - it's no secret that all the financial engineering necessary to reach the current state of affairs was terribly expensive, and the debt racked up by CVC is HUMONGOUS.

It may well default, especially as it tries to draw ever more money from track owners and organizers to give it to the banks. Let's explore that scenario, shall we? If it happens, prepare to see F1 re-emerge in the hands of FOTA. The teams will coalesce around a body they know works and will see to their interests. FOTA will undoubtedly want to take in Bernie y sus muchachos to take over the commercial part of things, under their conditions. That would be fun.

What if there's no Bernie? Well, the previous FOTA chairman, a Mr Montezemolo, is known to be stepping down from Ferrari some time between now and 2012. Or, should you prefer, Ron Dennis has always looked like he could be tempted. Mind you, the alternative is Flab Flav.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby coops » 25 Aug 2010, 04:07

Funnily enough I was thinking about this earlier today. I doubt there will be a New Bernie (who could afford to buy F1?) and in my opinion we can look forward to some sort of committe chaired by Bernies Chosen Few.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby JeanDenisAlcatraz » 25 Aug 2010, 04:19

coops wrote:who could afford to buy F1?


Arabs.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Phoenix » 25 Aug 2010, 05:19

Probably it will be essentially the same, but with some tweaks and changes to adapt the sport to the new times. I'm confident someone capable will take over the reins when Bernie dies.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby coops » 25 Aug 2010, 05:21

JeanDenisAlcatraz wrote:
coops wrote:who could afford to buy F1?


Arabs.

Good point.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Stramala » 25 Aug 2010, 05:28

coops wrote:
JeanDenisAlcatraz wrote:
coops wrote:who could afford to buy F1?


Arabs.

Good point.


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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 25 Aug 2010, 05:29

Phoenix wrote:Probably it will be essentially the same, but with some tweaks and changes to adapt the sport to the new times. I'm confident someone capable will take over the reins when Bernie dies.


Who do you have in mind?
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Phoenix » 25 Aug 2010, 05:41

eagleash wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Probably it will be essentially the same, but with some tweaks and changes to adapt the sport to the new times. I'm confident someone capable will take over the reins when Bernie dies.


Who do you have in mind?

No-one in particular, really, but I believe-I wish-he/she won't be a douche.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Stramala » 25 Aug 2010, 05:44

Phoenix wrote:
eagleash wrote:
Phoenix wrote:Probably it will be essentially the same, but with some tweaks and changes to adapt the sport to the new times. I'm confident someone capable will take over the reins when Bernie dies.


Who do you have in mind?

No-one in particular, really, but I believe-I wish-he/she won't be a douche.

That rules out the entire F1 fraternity then...:roll:
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 25 Aug 2010, 07:34

It seems that CVC no longer own Dorna so no connection with MotoGP; they had to sell to satisfy EU competition rules to get involved in F1. Also not only has Bernie purchased CVC shares with the money he received from them, he has also via his Alpha Prema Company bought out some other investors. One report suggests that Bernie again owns (via "AP") a possible 75% of F1.

On the subject of a successor Montezemolo was at the back of my mind........F1 could do worse. But if as if suggested CVC is now essentially Bernie again, who takes over the reins there?
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby CarlosFerreira » 25 Aug 2010, 07:57

eagleash wrote:...Bernie purchased CVC shares with the money he received from them, he has also via his Alpha Prema Company bought out some other investors. One report suggests that Bernie again owns (via "AP") a possible 75% of F1.


WHAT?! :o
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby patrick » 25 Aug 2010, 08:11

based on her terribly written wiki page, I really hope it isn't tamara ecclestone for some stupid succession reason. Probably arabs though.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Phoenix » 25 Aug 2010, 21:04

kostas22 wrote:
Phoenix wrote:
eagleash wrote:
Who do you have in mind?

No-one in particular, really, but I believe-I wish-he/she won't be a douche.

That rules out the entire F1 fraternity then...:roll:

Including the F1 Rejects fraternity? :o
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Stramala » 25 Aug 2010, 21:31

Phoenix wrote:
kostas22 wrote:
Phoenix wrote:No-one in particular, really, but I believe-I wish-he/she won't be a douche.

That rules out the entire F1 fraternity then...:roll:

Including the F1 Rejects fraternity? :o

A small percentage of it, yes.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby IdeFan » 26 Aug 2010, 04:44

MotoGP is run by Dorna, who as far as I can tell are a "faceless corporation". Now MotoGP isn't quite on the same scale as F1, but they seem to do a pretty good job.

They've got some things wrong: the change to 800CC bikes seemed to hurt the racing and there has been a declining grid, but you could say the same of F1: going into 2009 there was a real chance of an 18 car grid, and the racing hasn't been good for some time. I wouldn't worry too much, when Bernie's gone I suspect the show will carry on much the same, grid size will rise and fall with the financial times, the FIA and teams will continue to be hit and miss with regulations.

Remember the commercial rights holders are only in it to make money, and the best way to make money is to put bums on seats with good racing.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Cynon » 26 Aug 2010, 04:50

kostas22 wrote:
coops wrote:
JeanDenisAlcatraz wrote: coops: who could afford to buy F1?

Arabs.

Good point.


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So instead of being Formula Europe it becomes Formula Middle East?
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby mario » 26 Aug 2010, 05:51

eagleash wrote:It seems that CVC no longer own Dorna so no connection with MotoGP; they had to sell to satisfy EU competition rules to get involved in F1. Also not only has Bernie purchased CVC shares with the money he received from them, he has also via his Alpha Prema Company bought out some other investors. One report suggests that Bernie again owns (via "AP") a possible 75% of F1.

On the subject of a successor Montezemolo was at the back of my mind........F1 could do worse. But if as if suggested CVC is now essentially Bernie again, who takes over the reins there?

Now, I'd heard that Bernie had been buying into CVC after they paid him, but I had no idea that he'd managed to potentially build up that big a holding in them. It's a typical stroke of financial genius from him though - if he can't own the sport directly, he'll own the people who own the sport, and he must be getting a fairly healthy dividend from that stock holding.

For CVC, I suspect that they would be more then capable of nominating their own successor - I expect that they have probably planned for the contingency, and have already got several candidates from their own board who could step up. Montezemolo is more interesting, because there are rumours that he is seeking to enter the Italian political sphere as an opponent to Berlusconi. It isn't entirely unrealistic - he is quite popular, because his rescue of the Fiat group showed that he is a very effective organiser and planner, and he probably could win enough backing to pose a serious threat to Berlusconi.
Todt, meanwhile, seems to be happier within the FIA - for now, his light touch, compared to Mosely, and his conciliatory rhetoric has proved popular, and so far, he has handled most problems well, both in F1 and other sporting arenas (for example, lining up enough manufacturers in the WRC for initiatives such as the Global Race Engine to make the series more viable in the longer term). Admittedly, the big test will be how the Ferrari team orders case is dealt with - but, so far, he seems happy to stay put within the FIA, and run the sport from that position.

I'm trying to think who else has recent managerial experience of F1 who would be prepared to step up to the plate - some might suggest Ron Dennis, but with the launch of the automotive branch, and development of the MP4-12C is currently underway (they have 20 prototypes undergoing various performance and endurance trials at the moment - perhaps, given that there have been a number of vehicle fires with the 458, Ferrari should have followed suit), he won't want to go elsewhere.
Perhaps, as a real wild card, they might pick someone like Gerhard Berger? He was an effective team owner at Toro Rosso - he'd be enough of a ruthless back stabber for a bunch of venture capitalists too.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 26 Aug 2010, 07:45

Bernie is only a part owner of "AP"....who the other owners are, when they acquired the rights & how much Bernie owns seems to be shrouded in secrecy. (Flav?).The info I have obtained is that "AP" controls a total of 86% of "Formula One". Unravelling the various subsidiaries is way too time consuming & boring!! As observed to another member of this forum on a different medium, lets just assume BCE is top dog. The various Cos. involved seem happy to let him just get on with it because as initially observed he's good at it.
Which gets us back to who can replace him? Berger? Doesn't have the involvement currently, so would have to be an appointee, a manger in effect. Does he have the business acumen? Lauda? Airline went a bit belly up. Dennis given the opportunity to become the new Bernie would I'm sure give it serious consideration.
Facetious suggestion.....Branson......successful in the business world at least.....
It's all conjecture 'cos as we know Bernie is indestructable....
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Yannick » 26 Aug 2010, 08:21

There is a team owner who knows his way around finance - and reportedly had deals in place together with Bernie. The guy has only very recently become a team owner and people have often wondered what his business model in taking over a team was.
Well, maybe it was not about the team at all but about an invitation from Bernie to train his successor. Who is it? Well, Gerard Lopez of GenII Capital Racing.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 26 Aug 2010, 08:46

Yannick wrote:There is a team owner who knows his way around finance - and reportedly had deals in place together with Bernie. The guy has only very recently become a team owner and people have often wondered what his business model in taking over a team was.
Well, maybe it was not about the team at all but about an invitation from Bernie to train his successor. Who is it? Well, Gerard Lopez of GenII Capital Racing.


Fair shout! Train him up as it were, & "sell" him to the various Co. boards involved.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby AndreaModa » 26 Aug 2010, 09:11

IdeFan wrote:MotoGP is run by Dorna, who as far as I can tell are a "faceless corporation". Now MotoGP isn't quite on the same scale as F1, but they seem to do a pretty good job.

They've got some things wrong: the change to 800CC bikes seemed to hurt the racing and there has been a declining grid, but you could say the same of F1: going into 2009 there was a real chance of an 18 car grid, and the racing hasn't been good for some time. I wouldn't worry too much, when Bernie's gone I suspect the show will carry on much the same, grid size will rise and fall with the financial times, the FIA and teams will continue to be hit and miss with regulations.

Remember the commercial rights holders are only in it to make money, and the best way to make money is to put bums on seats with good racing.


I believe though that the company that owns Dorna is in fact a British one.

Whilst I agree that MotoGP has come on in leaps and bounds in the past 10-15 years, much like F1 I suppose, it is still hopelessly centered around Spain, with four rounds in the country this year. Now part of that is the Spanish influence, they're walking all over the 125s at the moment and Lorenzo is walking the MotoGP title with Rossi having been injured. However the other part is because Dorna is Spanish itself. It's also probably for that reason that MotoGP is called MotoGP. Why on earth isn't it Formula 1? With the move away from two strokes the new Moto2 and Moto3 classes should clearly be F2 and F3 and the whole setup would be instantly more marketable to the wider world and easier to understand for those uneducated spectators. In my opinion, whilst Dorna have moved the premier motorcycle championship onto another level, there's still a lot of work to be done before it can be considered on any sort of level with F1. And the ever declining grid is a classic example of that. I just hope Suzuki stay put so it will be an 18 bike grid in 2011, though the 1000cc regulations in 2012 will change everything for the better, and would be an ideal time to re-name the class Formula 1.

/rant over the state of MotoGP
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby eagleash » 26 Aug 2010, 12:08

Years ago there was a class of Motorcycle Racing called Formula 1. It was confusing because it was not the GP class, but something else. Possibly akin to Superbikes, but dunno for sure. Motorcycle racing classes have always been a little confusing to me (!), but I am quite happy with MotoGP/2/3. Formula 1 probably cannot be used for bike racing because it is a brand/tradename/whatever owned by someone. Possibly called Bernie.
Although come to think of it......is it still used for powerboats?
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby AndreaModa » 26 Aug 2010, 12:21

Yeah I think I'm correct in saying it was the effective predecessor to Superbikes, so nothing like 4 wheeled Formula 1 at all really...but yes there would bound to be copyright/intellectual property issues with it so it would never work, but still, I think it would be nice to see it happen :)
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby CarlosFerreira » 26 Aug 2010, 18:04

eagleash wrote:Years ago there was a class of Motorcycle Racing called Formula 1. It was confusing because it was not the GP class, but something else. Possibly akin to Superbikes, but dunno for sure. Motorcycle racing classes have always been a little confusing to me (!), but I am quite happy with MotoGP/2/3. Formula 1 probably cannot be used for bike racing because it is a brand/tradename/whatever owned by someone. Possibly called Bernie.
Although come to think of it......is it still used for powerboats?


If I remember correctly, it was an endurance formula on 750cc 4-stroke prototypes - sort of tricked-out Superbikes, yeah. The powerboats still use the designation F1 for their top class, now that you mention it.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby mario » 26 Aug 2010, 19:27

CarlosFerreira wrote:
eagleash wrote:Years ago there was a class of Motorcycle Racing called Formula 1. It was confusing because it was not the GP class, but something else. Possibly akin to Superbikes, but dunno for sure. Motorcycle racing classes have always been a little confusing to me (!), but I am quite happy with MotoGP/2/3. Formula 1 probably cannot be used for bike racing because it is a brand/tradename/whatever owned by someone. Possibly called Bernie.
Although come to think of it......is it still used for powerboats?


If I remember correctly, it was an endurance formula on 750cc 4-stroke prototypes - sort of tricked-out Superbikes, yeah. The powerboats still use the designation F1 for their top class, now that you mention it.

And the reason that they can do so is the fact that, despite years of trying by Bernie, he cannot copyright the term "F1" because it is considered commom parlance - in other words, a generic term, and it is not possible to copyright a common term (in the same way that, for example, hoover was once a trademarked name, but because it became so commonplace, the trademark became the name for the device, and so it lost it's legal protection).
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby coops » 26 Aug 2010, 19:33

mario wrote: despite years of trying by Bernie, he cannot copyright the term "F1" because it is considered commom parlance - in other words, a generic term, and it is not possible to copyright a common term (in the same way that, for example, hoover was once a trademarked name, but because it became so commonplace, the trademark became the name for the device, and so it lost it's legal protection).

Indeed. You even get F1 seeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F1_hybrid

Dull but true.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby AndreaModa » 26 Aug 2010, 20:56

CarlosFerreira wrote:
eagleash wrote:Years ago there was a class of Motorcycle Racing called Formula 1. It was confusing because it was not the GP class, but something else. Possibly akin to Superbikes, but dunno for sure. Motorcycle racing classes have always been a little confusing to me (!), but I am quite happy with MotoGP/2/3. Formula 1 probably cannot be used for bike racing because it is a brand/tradename/whatever owned by someone. Possibly called Bernie.
Although come to think of it......is it still used for powerboats?


If I remember correctly, it was an endurance formula on 750cc 4-stroke prototypes - sort of tricked-out Superbikes, yeah. The powerboats still use the designation F1 for their top class, now that you mention it.


That's the one! The Honda Britain Rothmans bikes were about the only decent things to be in it weren't they? The championships were made up of the Isle of Man TT, Assen TT, Ulster GP and a few others I think. Hardly worth the term 'F1' really!

EDIT: Just checked it out on wiki and there were in fact three Formulas and the official name was the Formula TT

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_TT

So basically it was a series designed to keep the Isle of Man TT in a world championship series...I think they even still ran the 'Formula 1' race but to Superbike standards until a couple of years ago, now it's just the 'Superbike Race' I think.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby Dom » 27 Aug 2010, 18:56

Can't one of us marry his daughter and then make a bid to carry on the sport as a sort of family business? F1 run by F1 Rejects? It'd be brilliant.
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby coops » 27 Aug 2010, 19:08

Dom wrote:Can't one of us marry his daughter and then make a bid to carry on the sport as a sort of family business? F1 run by F1 Rejects? It'd be brilliant.

Last I heard Dr Baker was a singleton and I think Id trust F1 in his capable hands.

Obviously, we cant get rid of the current crop of drivers but with a bit of persuasion perhaps Mr Baker could set up F1 and a 1/2. This would feature all our favourite Reject drivers (Luca for the title!)
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby resir014 » 27 Aug 2010, 19:11

Dom wrote:F1 run by F1 Rejects? It'd be brilliant.

+1 :lol:
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Re: F1 in the (distant) future

Postby dr-baker » 27 Aug 2010, 19:20

coops wrote:
Dom wrote:Can't one of us marry his daughter and then make a bid to carry on the sport as a sort of family business? F1 run by F1 Rejects? It'd be brilliant.

Last I heard Dr Baker was a singleton and I think Id trust F1 in his capable hands.

Obviously, we cant get rid of the current crop of drivers but with a bit of persuasion perhaps Mr Baker could set up F1 and a 1/2. This would feature all our favourite Reject drivers (Luca for the title!)

Which daughter are we talking about? Tamara or Petra?

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And seroiusly coops, you think F1 would be safe in my hands? I would need a commitee, and who better than Jamie and Enoch and their cohorts on this forum? And Formula Rejects would be a better name than Fomula 1 1/2...
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