2011 Predictions

[JohnMLTX]

I saw the whole betting thread for unrejectification, and thought maybe there could be a thread for just personal predictions for what one thinks could happen this year.

IMHO, I think that the 2nd drivers are gonna be the main title contenders this year, specifically Webber, Button, and Massa.
They've proven in the tests that they can handle the tyres as they degrade better, I think, then their teammates.

[fjackdaw]

I predict the first replacement will be Ricardio for Buemi.

[Shizuka]

I predict a rainy Hungarian GP
I predict a Lotus-Renault (note the -, not the Genii Lotus Renault) scoring a point in Monaco
I predict Heidfeld starting the season on the podium
I predict Schumacher retiring in Q1 at least once
I predict Karthikeyan not making the 107% cut at least once in the early races

[dinizintheoven]

I predict that Pastor Maldonado and Kamui Kobayashi will disqualify themselves from ever being given a full profile on this site. For a rather wilder prediction, I will gamble on the Alguersaurus also doing so. I am not going to be betting on this in the relevant thread because my icon is fine as it is and I'll make a signature when I think of a good one.

I predict the first double-DNQ of the season will go to Hispania, in Melbourne. For a less safe bet on this front, I will predict that one of the not-new-for-2010 teams will be amongst the DNQs at a wet race, only to be reinstated due to not being Hispania (e.g.: France 1999, Belgium 2001).

I predict that there will be many further complaints about the upcoming four-pot turbo engines that, shock, horror, don't rev above 13,000 rpm and will, apparently, sound like a badly riced 1995 Honda Civic. I also predict that all these complaints, every last one of them, will come from people who never heard a mid-1980s turbo engine that would blast itself to tiny bits above that limit. (This prediction has been brought to you by my recent viewing of the 1986 and 1987 season reviews. For research purposes.)

I predict that I will get the AGS article for this website written, and that it will be one of many articles submitted this year.

I predict that Tony Fernandes will lose the upcoming naming lawsuit, no matter how much evidence there is in his favour and no matter how much evidence there is against the rival team from Enstone. He is forced by the courts to rebrand his team as Team Fernandes. On the other hand, the courts also decide that Dany Bahar is such a complete bathplug and that all his litigation has dragged the Lotus name through so much more mud than it ever should have done that his organisation is also prevented from using the name, and his black cars are renamed Team Bahar. Colin Chapman's hat, no longer considered safe with Group Lotus, is buried in his grave.

I predict that Jukka Nevalainen will leave Nightwish in favour of recording improvised hi-hat solos. Heikki Kovalainen will attempt to join the band as his replacement, but is thwarted due to his F1 commitments. As a compromise, the Nightwish logo appears on the sidepods of the Team Fernandes T128 for the rest of the season. Nightwish announce that their new drummer is Slim Borgudd. This one might not actually happen.

I predict that many a Formula One forum will be rampantly ablaze with the sound of foam-mouthed tifosi and Alonso fanboys accusing McLaren of cheating at every race, even if both cars DNQ for some unexplained reason, and call for McLaren to be banned from ever competing in F1 ever again, for Martin Whitmarsh and Ron Dennis to be burned at the stake, and for Lewis Hamilton to be hung, drawn and quartered, while they're still fairly indifferent to Jenson Button because he had no hope of beating Alonso in '07 and wasn't anywhere near as much of a threat last year as their personal bête noire was. I predict that those same forums will be "mildly smouldering" with McLaren fanboys who will be saying much the same things about Ferrari and Alonso, though never quite as vociferously, and never openly calling for the generously-eyebrowed one to be publicly put to death.

And finally, I also predict that this forum will not be one of those I've just described.

[mario]

With the FIA changing the rules over the use of the safety car again, I think that the chances of somebody being penalised for breaking the rules during a safety car period is pretty high:

The safety car speed limit (an approximate 40% decrease in lap time) will now be enforced over two laps instead of one. The purpose is to ensure that cars are driven at a safe speed until they reach the safety car.

During a safety car period the pit exit light will remain green for the duration, unless the race is subsequently suspended.

Other than when the safety car has been asked to use the pit lane, no car may enter the pits while the safety car is deployed unless it is for the purpose of changing tyres.

Text taken from this press release by the WMSC http://www.fia.com/en-GB/mediacentre/pr ... 80311.aspx

Looking at the current text, I can think of several ways in which a driver could be tripped up, so it'll be interesting to see how this works out in practise.

[nome66]

My prediction::

i think Tilke and Ecclestone will reveal themselves as brothers.

[Dj_bereta]

-Start crash in australian GP.
-Rain in first 3 races.
-Rain in Monaco race.
-Massa/Alonso crash at least once.
-Massa in front of Alonso in first half of season and Alonso trying make a internal storm in ferrari.
-Williams not scoring points in first 3 races.
-Hispania quitting F-1 after silverstone.
-Hispania double 107% in first 2 races.
-Hamilton causing many crashes.
-A Chaotic race in Montreal. Barrichello getting a podium, Lotus scoring points.
-Another boring Hungarian GP.
-Heidfeld beating Petrov.

[F1000X]

I predict: This will be Schumacher's final season in Formula 1. He will manage a podium or 2, but no wins, he will once again be outperformed by Nico Rosberg, and will finish outside the top 6 in drivers points.

I predict: Hamilton will win at Spa once again.

I predict: The Korean GP will have fine weather, and still be a terrible race.

[Phoenix]

Drivers:
-Giorgio Mondini being confirmed at HRT because of his sponsorship money.
-Trulli retiring after this year.
-Alguersuari outperforming Buemi.
-Buemi being replaced by Ricciardo at Toro Rosso.
-Kobayashi scoring three or four podiums.
-Sutil scoring a couple of podiums.
-Petrov scoring a podium.
-Rosberg winning a race.
-Massa winning three or four races, but not being a threat to the title overall.
-Alonso clinching his third title.

Teams:
-HRT failing to qualify for several races with one or both cars and folding at the end of the season.
-Team Lotus scoring some points.
-Renault giving a shake to the Big Three.
-Red Bull winning the Constructors Championship.

[DanielPT]

Drivers:
-Giorgio Mondini being confirmed at HRT because of his sponsorship money.

That was your first miss !

[tommykl]

-Virgin scores points, as well as Fernandes' Lotus.
-Mercedes are on the pace, but horribly unreliable and finish 5th in the Constructors' Championship.
-Sutil has a great season, scoring a podium or two, and scoring a top-ten overall.
-Red Bull and Ferrari fight for the championship, with McLaren and Renault going for third.
-Nick Heidfeld finally scores that elusive win .

[Klon]

Enter Klon's spoilsport predictions:

- Red Bull will dominate the championship race with Vettel winning the title in India
- Nick Heidfeld will fail in dramatic fashion
- Cora Schumacher will be the only Schumacher who scores a podium in 2011
- Williams will struggle despite Barrichello being at the top of his game
- Virgin will pull out at the end of the season, leaving Marussia Racing to scramble for funds

[fjackdaw]

Two new winners in 2011 - Rosberg at last and a surprise one for Maldonado at either Hungary or Monaco. But still no sausage for poor Nick Heidfeld.

[Tealy]

I predict:
The winner of the Canadian GP will run a 5 stop strategy
Heidfeld winning, only to be replaced for the next race
We hear "Fernando is faster than you" spoken ironically by Rob Smedly, who then has to explain that it is a team order and he must move over
The Bahrain race gets hastily rescheduled and as a result less than 100 people attend
The British GP will be easily the best race of the year (because I wont be able to watch it live this year)
HRT run Karun Chandhok in the 2nd car at the Indian GP but no other races

[Shizuka]

-Red Bull and Renault fight for the championship, with McLaren and Renault going for third.

Not Red Bull and Ferrari?

[DonTirri]

My predictions.

-Vettel will become a two-time world champion after first totally squashing Webber in the intra-team competition and then fending off both Hamilton and Alonso all season long.
-Kubica comes back and wins three races back to back, but due to missing the first few races is out of the title picture, sadly.
-Heidfeld will amount to nothing and retire once Kubica returns.
-Kovalainen will drag the Lotus Renault to points in a race of attrition.
-Massa quits F1 due to frustration of being no.2 to Alsoslow.
-Sutil continues to wade in mediocrity.
-Kobayashi scores a podium with a brilliant drive in Japan.

[Phoenix]

Drivers:
-Giorgio Mondini being confirmed at HRT because of his sponsorship money.

That was your first miss !

Wait until mid-season...

[mario]

Drivers:
-Giorgio Mondini being confirmed at HRT because of his sponsorship money.

That was your first miss !

Wait until mid-season...

I suppose you could also defend yourself on the point that you didn't specify that it would be alongside Karthikeyan - HRT have still not announced their reserve driver yet. We could yet see HRT sign up a pay driver as their reserve driver - then, if money runs short, they could boot out Liuzzi (as Karthikeyan's rumoured €8 million of TATA sponsorship is too much to throw away), and slot their reserve driver in his place.

Speaking of mid season substitutions:

HRT run Karun Chandhok in the 2nd car at the Indian GP but no other races

If any team was likely to do that, I would have thought that it would be Team Lotus. We know that Chandhok has been in talks with Team Lotus about their third driver position, and at the moment that position is still vacant, I believe. Chandhok probably does have a reasonable chance of getting a seat there, and if he did, then I reckon that Team Lotus would probably let him drive the car during the practise sessions at least, and possibly the entire race weekend, at the Indian GP.

As for predictions on performance, well, you'd expect Red Bull to be leading the field, given that the RB7 is building upon the RB5 and RB6, both very strong cars. Moreover, the car has been very reliable during testing, so this could be that rare thing - a Newey designed car that is bullet proof.
Ferrari, meanwhile, look like they have a pretty solid car - their times have been pretty consistent and fairly good during testing, and most observers seem to suggest that the car looks to be a stable and easily predictable car to drive. The RB7 will probably still have an advantage in qualifying, but I think that Ferrari might be closer in race trim.
Renault have probably improved their relative competitiveness, but would probably require some good fortune to win (even if Kubica was driving, since talent can only make up so much of a downforce deficit, and Vettel is probably one of the quickest drivers in the current field over a single lap).
Mercedes seem to have fallen back a bit, although we'll have to see how their big upgrade works tomorrow; they'll probably be where Renault was in 2010 (occasionally a front runner, but most of the time merely best of the rest). At the very least, the car seems to be much more reliable now than it was earlier on, if short on pace.
McLaren are a bit of a conundrum - they are struggling a bit, especially with reliability. They might be able to eventually develop the MP4-26 into a race winner as the season progresses - but by the time they do, they could well be too many points down to mount a serious title challenge. I wouldn't write them off altogether, but they are on the back foot.
The trickiest section is the Williams-Toro Rosso-Sauber-Force India chasing pack, which has been pretty tight in recent years, with each team rising and falling as the year progresses.
Toro Rosso seems to have made the biggest performance leap, although there is still the nagging question of whether their drivers really do have what it takes to make the most of a competitive car.
Williams now have solid funding, an improved Cosworth engine and Rubens is currently going through something of a revival, but Maldonado has a few question marks hanging over him, and their KERS has been giving them quite a few problems in testing.
Sauber are on a more solid financial footing, and getting Key seems to have given the team more confidence and structure. The C30 seems a solid enough car, if not spectacular, but Kobayashi is now facing a sterner test as he steps up to the team leader role, whilst he has a potentially promising rookie next to him.
Force India have been OK at the moment, although you suspect that the defection of a high proportion of their management and engineering team to other teams has hurt development of the VJM04. They have one of the best KERS available to them from Mercedes, but you suspect that they have lost some momentum compared to last year.
As for the new teams, well, Lotus seem to have put together a decent car which may be capable of getting the odd point or two in high attrition races. They are likely to still be towards the back of the grid, but probably much closer to the midfield pack. Virgin Racing, meanwhile, seem to have fallen back a little from Lotus (the MRV02 doesn't seem to be a big improvement over the VR-01), but at least it seems to be reasonably reliable - they have clocked up more mileage than Lotus - so, again, perhaps a point or two in high attrition races (but the odds are probably against them for that happening).
As for HRT, well, we know the car is unlikely to be a huge departure from the F110, so you suspect that they will remain at the back. Whilst the Williams drivetrain is a bonus, with one pay driver and a ROTY, they aren't exactly starting from a great position.

So, to summarise, a tentative prediction of the pecking order is Red Bull, Ferrari, Renault, Mercedes or McLaren (it really depends on Mercedes's upgrade package, and McLaren's reliability), Toro Rosso, Williams, Sauber, Force India, Team Lotus, Virgin Racing and finally HRT.

[tommykl]

-Red Bull and Renault fight for the championship, with McLaren and Renault going for third.

Not Red Bull and Ferrari?

OOOOOOOOH crap. Fixed.

[MaxZero]

Loving Kobayashi's recent prediction

[DanielPT]

Loving Kobayashi's recent prediction

Kobayashi comments are always great!

[dinizintheoven]

He might turn out to be right. When Sato-san shot past Señor Eyebrows at Montreal in 2007, did anyone see that coming?

[P_Friesacher]

"For the spectators it would certainly be a little confusing."

[nome66]

lord those Perellis are a bad idea. why perelli? why not bring back GoodYear? they produced the most winners back when f1 was about who has the best combo and not "how even can we make the race".
iv'e worked on cars with perelli tires before and loathed every minute of it. they wear super fast if the toe is just under perfect, the compounding is all wrong, and i hate how the beads crumble if you try to remove them from a rim bigger than 17".

[fjackdaw]

lord those Perellis are a bad idea. why perelli? why not bring back GoodYear? they produced the most winners back when f1 was about who has the best combo and not "how even can we make the race".
iv'e worked on cars with perelli tires before and loathed every minute of it. they wear super fast if the toe is just under perfect, the compounding is all wrong, and i hate how the beads crumble if you try to remove them from a rim bigger than 17".

I don't think it would be a case of bringing back GoodYear so much as GoodYear being willing to do it.

[JeremyMcClean]

Hmm let's see

*the 2nd HRT driver (from the local sources, 2010 ROTY Liuzzi) not making into 107% time
*Red Bull having a drop-off
*Ferrari ends up having illegal fuel, but stays in the race...
*Only for McLaren to accidentally put on hard tyres instead of softs, and the FIA DSQ's them from the constructor's
*Alonso wins three races that Felipe could have very well won
*Massa gets is fired from/quits Ferrari after this season
*Webber retires after 2011
*Vettel replaces Massa in Ferrari
*McLaren retains Button and Hamilton, despite having both not being even close to the championship
*My taper self-destructs so I am forced to A) Wake up a two in the morning to watch the races or B) Get some online services
*Lotus, HRT and Virgin do not score points

I am unsure about who will win the championship. I will get back to you before a week before the grand prix.
I am also not betting anything serious, unless Jérôme d'Ambrosio unrejectifies himself, in that case, I will resort to having to do what will happen in this post.

[mario]

lord those Perellis are a bad idea. why perelli? why not bring back GoodYear? they produced the most winners back when f1 was about who has the best combo and not "how even can we make the race".
iv'e worked on cars with perelli tires before and loathed every minute of it. they wear super fast if the toe is just under perfect, the compounding is all wrong, and i hate how the beads crumble if you try to remove them from a rim bigger than 17".

Because FOM were initially pushing for terms that most of the major manufacturers considered to be commercially unattractive. In effect, Bridgestone was having to subsidise Formula 1 because they were having to sponsor FOM and the teams as part of the deal - not so much of a problem when the economy was riding high, but more of a problem when consumer motoring is increasingly expensive and the economy has hit trouble. In fact, even though Pirelli eventually accepted the contract, they are paying considerably less than Bridgestone were having to - in fact, FOM is having to pay Pirelli for the tyres. They aren't paying all that much, but they are having to pay for them for the first time in several years, which shows that they had a weaker bargaining position this time around.

And the other issue is that some of the other tyre manufacturers, particularly Michelin, didn't want to enter the sport unless there was competition (i.e. a new tyre war). However, the teams and the FIA are set against that - in the last tyre war, the tyre manufacturers often ended up forming strong relationships with just one or two chosen teams (Ferrari for Bridgestone and Renault for Michelin), which benefited the chosen team at the expense of others who used the same tyre. Once you strip out Bridgestone and their subsidiary companies, and Michelin (since their bid seems to have been deliberately uncompetitive), Pirelli were the only company willing to produce tyres within the deadlines set by the FIA.

As to the relative quality of the tyres, well, I guess that we will find out what the overall picture is like in Melbourne. The drivers are still not happy about the situation, and Pirelli are now having to seriously consider bringing additional sets of tyres for the practise sessions in order to keep them happy.
On top of that, there is another rumour floating around today that Pirelli are having to work on a new type of tyre for the Turkish Grand Prix because of the extreme loading the tyres experience through Turn 8 - whether true or not, it isn't going to help the reputation Pirelli have of producing somewhat fragile racing tyres.

[nome66]

reputation indeed. they may as well be driving on dry-rotted erasers.
if they are trying to save weight as well, the picked the wrong spot.

[Myrvold]

Tyres that lasts too long equals moaning. The opposite equals moaning.

[Wizzie]

Tyres that lasts too long equals moaning. The opposite equals moaning.

Oi! I'm all for tyres that fall away after 2 laps.

[DanielPT]

Tyres that lasts too long equals moaning. The opposite equals moaning.

Oi! I'm all for tyres that fall away after 2 laps.

Myrvold is right. Most of the people complained that tyres lasted too long last season and now they complain that tyres don't last enough. Last year they were all for changes that improved overtaking and now they are complaning that these changes don't do anything and are dangerous without giving them a proper chance. Seriously, people moan a lot in F1... I love these Pirelli tyres and believe it will improve racing. In the end, drivers and teams should shut up and adapt, i.e., do their job, while fans should wait and see the first 2 or 3 races. I can't believe that FIA would allow these changes if they weren't deemed safe by one of many comissions they have. (That is another thing, they complain that the technical rules don't allow inovation and then FIA goes and change them, only for people to say that it is way too many changes and some of them are even considered unsafe.)

[Klon]

Seriously, people moan a lot in F1... I love these Pirelli tyres and believe it will improve racing. In the end, drivers and teams should shut up and adapt, i.e., do their job, while fans should wait and see the first 2 or 3 races.

People moan a lot everywhere and are hypocrites about it, Formula 1 is no exception but by far not the only thing where that happens. That's the problem with freedom of opinion in combination with the Internet, it allows every bloody ... nah, better not say it ... on this planet (including yours truly ) to have other people hear their pointless bickering.

And to have my ranting at least a bit related to F1: I agree fully, we should wait how the changes turn out, if they lead to catastrophe like some fear, we can always change them again.

[JeremyMcClean]

lord those Perellis are a bad idea. why perelli? why not bring back GoodYear? they produced the most winners back when f1 was about who has the best combo and not "how even can we make the race".
iv'e worked on cars with perelli tires before and loathed every minute of it. they wear super fast if the toe is just under perfect, the compounding is all wrong, and i hate how the beads crumble if you try to remove them from a rim bigger than 17".

Because the FIA wants tyres that self-destruct after 15 laps

Seriously, they should be wearing out faster than Bridgestones, I HATED the Bridgestones! I preferred Michelin myself, but Pirelli will do just fine. Besides, I have no idea how good they are, they should last a third of the race distance, so each car will have to pit at least twice for tyres.

---

And for those who are needy, unfortunely, I have most of my main predictions on my blog (the link in my sig that says "Check this out!" in blue letters.

Yes, I'm selling out like HRT.

[europeanminardi]

I predict Alonso or Vettel for World Champion, Ferrari or Red Bull winning the constructor's. The small teams will have no chance to even score a point and Renault will gradually drop back (to where "Team hedgefund F1" belongs.

Here's what I'm hoping for, though:
- points for Lotus (Malayisa-Lotus)
- a competitive McLaren, because they're the top team I dislike least. As I've given up hope for a Minardi return, I have to somewhat support one of the top teams
- Ferrari embarassing themselves, with several races without points
- return of the old points system. I really haven't followed the standings during the season because the numbers are just too high for me.
- I hope the 2011 season will be as interesting as last year's season
- Hamilton having a shot at the championship.
- HRT qualifying for more than 50% of the Grands Prix
- Heidfeld winning a race
- Liuzzi off to Nascar. Or any other series. Just get rid of him. And replace him with Klien.
- Jean Todt banning Thielke-trackdesigns for life and instead we'll see the return to Austria and Indianapolis

[Pedestrian]

Predictions:

- The mobile rear wing will turn out to be a bad ideea and will be dropped.
- Petrov will be closer to Heidfeld than he was to Kubica.
- Neither Red Bull nor Torro Rosso will confirm their testing form. Red bull will finish third or worse in the WCC.

[nome66]

my new prediction::

chaparral will enter a factory team in f1, capitalizing on the new rear wings.

[dr-baker]

- return of the old points system. I really haven't followed the standings during the season because the numbers are just too high for me.

Hense why NASCAR have just simplified their points system.

Anyway, not predictions but wishes from me:

1. Button to be WDC in a tight fight with Lewis and Rubens.
2. Indian GP podium to be a Force India one-two, with Chandok winning and Narain finishing third for HRT.
3. Alonso and Schumacher to fight it out for ROTY.

[Wizzie]

Hense why NASCAR have just simplified their points system.

Which is now f***ed up beyond belief.

[Shizuka]

Hense why NASCAR have just simplified their points system.

Which is now f***ed up beyond belief.

Well, Brad Keselowski could say the same thing that he did to Kyle Busch

[thehemogoblin]

Hense why NASCAR have just simplified their points system.

Which is now f***ed up beyond belief.

Oh god.

It would work better if no points were awarded to positions 21 and worse.